Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
Are there projections for federal funding per capita changes in 2026?
Executive Summary
The short answer is: official federal agencies like the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) publish the aggregate spending, revenue, deficit and population projections needed to compute federal funding per capita for 2026, but they do not typically publish a ready-made “per‑capita” series for that year; independent sites such as USGovernmentSpending.com do offer per‑capita projections for 2026 using budget scenarios. The CBO’s baseline data and other official budget documents provide the raw numerators and denominators necessary to calculate per‑person figures, while private aggregators may present those calculations directly [1] [2] [3].
1. Why the question matters — Per‑capita gives a different picture than totals
Per‑capita measures change how budget growth and fiscal pressures are perceived because dividing aggregate outlays by population adjusts for demographic change and yields a per‑person burden or benefit that voters and analysts find intuitive. The CBO publishes multi‑year projections of total federal outlays, revenues, deficits and projected population each year, which are the two components needed to derive per‑capita figures; however, the agency’s standard tables emphasize aggregates and shares of GDP rather than explicit per‑person series [2] [4]. Independent data services have stepped in to produce per‑capita displays, often offering “budgeted,” “estimated,” and more speculative scenarios; those presentations can vary by methodology and are only as reliable as the underlying assumptions [1].
2. What the official sources say — CBO provides raw data but not a per‑person headline
The Congressional Budget Office’s multi‑year outlooks (e.g., the 2024 and 2025 outlook products) present baseline outlays and population projections through the mid‑2030s and thus contain everything necessary to calculate per‑capita spending but do not typically present that derived statistic as a primary table for 2026 [2] [5]. CBO reports released in 2024 and later emphasize totals, percentages of GDP, and deficit paths; their data files let users compute per‑person amounts by dividing projected outlays by projected population. Several CBO documents cited in the analyses explicitly state they do not publish a per‑capita series for 2026 even though such a figure can be reconstructed from provided tables [6] [2].
3. What the independent aggregators claim — ready‑made per‑capita projections exist
Websites that repackage official budget projections for public consumption sometimes include a year selector and per‑capita display so users can view 2026 in dollars per person. One such aggregator explicitly offers budgeted, estimated and “guesstimated” figures for FY 2026 and can show values as “dollars per capita” or “thousand dollars per capita,” which means users can see projected federal funding per person without doing the math [1]. These services are useful for quick comparisons, but their labels and scenario choices can reflect editorial or methodological decisions; users should cross‑check the underlying CBO or Office of Management and Budget numbers when precision matters.
4. How to reconcile differences — do the math or check methodology
When sources disagree about whether a per‑capita projection “exists,” the discrepancy usually comes down to format and presentation, not data availability. CBO and OMB publish totals and population projections (the raw numerator and denominator), so a per‑capita number for 2026 is reproducible; third‑party sites may present that number outright with added scenario labels and rounding choices [3] [7]. Analysts should verify whether a published per‑capita figure uses nominal dollars or real (inflation‑adjusted) dollars, which population projection was used, and whether it reflects enacted law, the President’s budget, or CBO baseline assumptions, because those choices materially change the 2026 per‑person amount [2] [1].
5. Bottom line and practical next steps for exact figures
If you need an authoritative, reproducible per‑capita projection for 2026, download the CBO or OMB tables that list projected total outlays and projected population and perform the division, documenting whether you use nominal or real dollars and which scenario you selected; this produces a traceable number consistent with official methodology [2] [3]. If you prefer a quick readout, consult reputable aggregators that explicitly state they show FY‑2026 dollars per capita, but verify their source mapping to CBO/OMB tables and check publication dates — one aggregator referenced here dates from December 2020 while CBO updates cited include a June 2024 update and a 2025 publication, so use the most recent official baseline for an accurate 2026 per‑person estimate [1] [2] [8].