What are the annual federal and state fiscal costs of undocumented immigrants in the united states?
Executive summary
Estimates of the annual fiscal cost of undocumented (unauthorized/illegal) immigrants to federal, state and local taxpayers vary widely—from roughly $66–$182 billion in some advocacy calculations of annual government spending to broader cost-of-removal and budget-impact studies that emphasize much larger multi‑year effects or large fiscal risks from policy choices (FAIR/White House figures; Penn Wharton and American Immigration Council analyses) [1] [2] [3] [4]. Reliable federal projections from nonpartisan agencies such as the Congressional Budget Office focus on program‑specific budget effects (for example, increases in premium tax‑credit enrollment and Medicaid emergency‑care costs) rather than a single national “net cost” number [5].
1. Why single “annual cost” figures diverge so dramatically
Different groups measure different things. Advocacy studies that produce headline annual totals (for example, FAIR’s $150–$182 billion range or FAIR/FAIR‑like tabulations cited by the White House) add federal, state and local spending categories and sometimes include costs for children of undocumented immigrants or presumed future liabilities; they usually count program outlays without a corresponding long‑term tax‑revenue offset calculation [2] [1]. By contrast, nonpartisan academic and budget‑model work (Manhattan Institute, Penn Wharton, CBO) often model lifetime fiscal impacts, macroeconomic effects of deportation, or changes to specific programs (premium tax credits, Medicaid) and therefore report very different magnitudes and time horizons [6] [3] [5].
2. Examples of headline numbers and what they actually cover
- FAIR and reports cited by the White House put annual costs in the $150–$182 billion range for government spending tied to unauthorized immigrants and their dependents; the White House fact sheet cites FAIR’s $182 billion figure and breaks it into federal ($66.5 billion) and state/local ($115.6 billion) components for an assumed 20 million “illegal aliens and their children” [1] [2].
- The American Enterprise Institute’s or similar think‑tank summaries cite per‑household or per‑person annual cost estimates and lifetime numbers that rely on demographic and benefit‑use assumptions; the AEI summary referenced claims per‑taxpayer or per‑alien cost figures [7].
- CBO does not present a single “undocumented immigrants cost” annual sum; instead it quantifies programmatic impacts such as an estimated 600,000 extra premium tax‑credit enrollees in 2024 driven by the immigration surge and per‑person premium credit cost estimates ($6,300 in 2024, rising in projections) [5].
3. What rigorous budget models say about large policy moves
Models that analyze mass deportation or large enforcement actions find removal programs would be extremely costly and would reduce tax revenue because undocumented workers pay income and payroll taxes; Penn Wharton estimates permanent deportation could cost roughly $900 billion over ten years and cites a $187.4 billion projected tax‑revenue loss from 2025–2034 tied to removing unauthorized workers who presently contribute taxes [3]. The American Immigration Council similarly estimates enforcement and removal at scale would have direct fiscal costs (e.g., billions per million removals) plus large macroeconomic losses [4].
4. Local and state costs matter — and can be concentrated
News reporting and committee hearings highlight large local expenses—shelter, emergency health care, school enrollment—that fall heavily on particular cities and counties. New York City’s shelter and service spending and state reimbursement debates are examples cited in reporting and hearings that local fiscal pressure can be acute even if national net impacts are contested [8] [9].
5. Conflicting agendas and methodological caveats
Sources tilting toward higher cost totals (FAIR, some House committee materials, advocacy groups) often seek policy changes restricting immigration or benefits and therefore emphasize outlays and service use [2] [9]. Think tanks and nonpartisan budget shops model different windows (30‑year lifetime versus annual flows) and include or exclude descendants’ taxes and benefits, producing very different results [6] [3]. CBO focuses narrowly on statutory program effects and avoids aggregating to a single “cost of undocumented immigrants” metric [5].
6. Bottom line and reporting limits
Available sources do not converge on one authoritative annual federal+state cost number; instead they present a range driven by methodology and intent. Reporting and models cited here put annual spending estimates in the roughly $66–$182 billion federal+state outlay range in some studies [1] [2], while budget‑model and academic work stresses larger multi‑year costs or fiscal consequences of removal and program changes [3] [6] [5]. Readers should treat any single headline figure as contingent on definitions (who is counted, which programs, what time frame) and on the agenda of the source making the claim [2] [9].