Which food categories saw the largest price declines since 2022?
Executive summary
The sharpest price declines since the 2022 peak have been concentrated in internationally traded commodity categories: vegetable oils and many types of grains (notably wheat and some coarse grains), and several animal-product categories such as fish/seafood and dairy saw meaningful pullbacks — with the FAO index overall about 21.9% below its March 2022 peak and vegetable oils singled out repeatedly as driving early declines [1] [2] [3]. U.S. domestic data show retail declines in specific categories: egg prices plunged after 2022’s spike and fish/seafood and dairy registered year-over-year drops in 2023–24 for many months [4] [5] [6].
1. Global commodity collapses drove the headline retreat
The post‑2022 easing of world commodity prices is the clearest signal: the FAO Food Price Index fell steadily after peaking in March 2022, and by later reporting was 21.9% below that peak — with vegetable oils and, to a lesser extent, dairy and meat indices accounting for much of the slide [1] [2]. Multiple international agencies and analyses point to vegetable oils as the leading contributor to early declines because of improved supply and reduced import demand after the worst pandemic/war disruptions eased [2] [7].
2. Grains: a big swing from panic to relief for some markets
Grain prices spiked in early 2022 as the Russia‑Ukraine war disrupted Black Sea exports; those prices then eased after diplomatic deals and improved harvest prospects returned some volumes to market. Sources note global wheat and other grain prices declined from their 2022 highs, driven by restored shipments and record or improved production in some exporters [8] [9]. The World Bank and FAO reporting show grains contributed materially to the 2023–25 declines in commodity indices [10] [9].
3. Vegetable oils: the single largest contributor to early declines
The vegetable‑oil index hit record highs in 2022 and then tumbled, leading several month‑to‑month and year‑to‑year drops reported by FAO and news outlets. Reporting cites expectations of larger soy‑oil output in South America and weaker import demand as key supply‑side reasons for the reversal that drove large index movements [2] [7].
4. Meat, dairy and seafood: mixed recoveries with notable pullbacks
Globally, meat and dairy indices fell from 2022 highs through 2023, and FAO/AP reporting shows meat and dairy were lower in aggregate even as exceptions existed [3]. In U.S. retail measures, dairy products as a major food‑at‑home group showed declines (dairy down 0.2% in 2024 and dairy had the largest major‑group decline in 2023 at −1.3%), and fish/seafood prices fell in several months and for full‑year comparisons [5] [4]. These declines reflect both softer commodity prices and normalizing supply chains, though the size of declines varied by product and market.
5. Eggs were volatile: from huge spike to large correction
Egg prices exemplify category‑level whiplash. After HPAI and other 2022 shocks pushed egg prices dramatically higher, they fell sharply in subsequent months — the BLS noted egg prices fell 23.8% in 2023 after their 2022 surge, and industry trackers recorded double‑digit month declines that helped pull down food‑at‑home indexes [11] [6] [4]. That volatility means eggs registered one of the largest single‑category reversals even if retail prices remained above earlier baselines in some periods.
6. U.S. retail picture: selective declines, not wholesale price drops
USDA and BLS series show that while some food‑at‑home categories fell (fish/seafood and dairy among them) and specific items like eggs corrected sharply, the overall consumer food index remained higher than pre‑2021 levels and continued to grow in most years after 2022 [5] [12]. USDA ERS notes two food‑at‑home categories declined in 2024 (fish/seafood −1.9% and dairy −0.2%) while many others continued to post increases — underscoring that declines were concentrated, not universal [5].
7. Why the pattern isn’t uniform: supply, demand, and policy frictions
The sources explain divergent outcomes: international trade reopenings, record or improved crops in some exporters, and lower crude oil pressures eased vegetable oil and grain prices, while disease outbreaks, labor and input cost changes, and domestic retail/processing margins kept other categories elevated or volatile [8] [13] [14]. That produces the pattern seen in FAO and USDA data: big commodity declines in some indices but persistent higher prices at the consumer level for many staples [1] [12].
8. Takeaway and caveats for readers
Available reporting consistently identifies vegetable oils, certain grains, fish/seafood, dairy, and eggs as the food categories with the largest post‑2022 declines or reversals [1] [3] [5] [4]. Limitations: reporting aggregates (FAO, World Bank) focus on internationally traded commodities, while U.S. retail series (USDA, BLS) show more granular and sometimes different timing — so whether a shopper “sees” a decline depends on the product, region, and when retail prices adjusted [1] [5] [12]. Sources do not provide a single ranked list of “largest declines since 2022” for every market; they instead show consistent evidence that vegetable oils and select grains and animal‑product categories led the retreat from 2022 peaks [1] [2] [4].