What are projections for future deficits under current Biden policies versus alternative scenarios?
Executive summary
CBO and advocacy analyses project persistent trillion‑dollar deficits under current law: CBO’s baseline shows annual deficits remaining above $1 trillion in the near term and rising toward $2+ trillion in the 2030s [1] [2]. The Biden administration’s FY2025 budget claims it would cut deficits by about $3.2 trillion over ten years relative to the OMB baseline, while outside groups dispute the net impact of Biden policies, with CRFB and House GOP analyses citing multi‑trillion figures in deficit increases since 2021 [3] [4] [5] [6].
1. The baseline: CBO’s long shadow over deficit expectations
The Congressional Budget Office’s baseline projections drive most public discussion: recent CBO work projects mandatory spending and interest rising substantially, leaving the federal government on a path of large, recurring deficits—“over $1 trillion through 2029” and “over $2 trillion” in early 2030s under the baseline that assumes current law [1] [2]. House Budget Committee releases emphasize that mandatory programs plus interest are the principal drivers of those ten‑year shortfalls [2].
2. Biden’s stated course: a $3.2 trillion claimed reduction over a decade
The Biden administration’s FY2025 budget presents a counter‑narrative: OMB’s plan would, by administration accounting, reduce deficits by approximately $3.2 trillion over ten years relative to the OMB baseline, relying chiefly on higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations and targeted program savings [3]. Analysts at the Peterson Foundation note that even with that plan the administration concedes remaining deficits over the decade would still exceed $16 trillion, meaning proposed savings are large but not sufficient to erase projected shortfalls [3].
3. Competing tallies: advocacy groups and partisan tallies disagree on “how much” Biden added
Outside estimates of how much President Biden’s actions have increased the deficit vary widely and politically. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) attributes roughly $4.7 trillion in net new ten‑year debt growth to Biden’s actions, composed of $6.6 trillion in deficit‑increasing actions offset by $1.9 trillion in deficit reductions [4]. House Republican summaries and some GOP research place larger figures on deficit increases—claims that legislation since 2021 raised ten‑year debt projections by $6 trillion or more [6]. The House Budget Committee also points to higher projected interest costs adding trillions to the outlook [6] [5].
4. Why tallies diverge: baselines, interest, and disputed attribution
Differences reflect methodology more than arithmetic. Some analyses count only enacted tax and spending changes; others fold in macroeconomic effects, changes in interest‑rate forecasts, or executive actions. For example, House GOP and some fact sheets assert that inflation‑driven interest increases have added trillions to projected net interest costs—an effect they ascribe to the policy environment and attribute to the administration [5] [6]. CRFB and other trackers separate one‑time policy choices, regulatory effects, and scoring conventions, producing lower or differently framed totals [4] [5].
5. The political framing: budgets as messaging as much as arithmetic
Partisan sources use numbers strategically. Democrats tout the president’s budget as a $3.2 trillion reduction relative to OMB baseline assumptions [3], while Republican committees highlight multi‑trillion increases tied to Biden policies and rising interest costs [6]. Watch for “current law” versus “policy” baselines—extending expiring tax provisions or new legislation can swing ten‑year totals by trillions, a choice that often reflects political preference and implicit agendas [7] [3].
6. What’s missing or uncertain in public reporting
Available sources do not mention a single, universally agreed forecast that isolates only “Biden policies” versus a neutral baseline without value judgments; instead, each report uses its own assumptions and scopes (not found in current reporting). Projections are sensitive to interest‑rate paths, economic growth, and Congress’s future choices—factors all sources acknowledge as drivers of uncertainty [2] [3].
7. Bottom line for policymakers and voters
If current law and CBO’s baseline prevail, deficits will remain large and grow as mandatory spending and interest rise, producing repeated trillion‑dollar deficits into the 2030s [1] [2]. The administration proposes a budget that would reduce deficits by roughly $3.2 trillion over ten years relative to its baseline [3], but outside watchdogs and partisan analysts produce competing multi‑trillion estimates of Biden’s fiscal footprint depending on which items they include or exclude [4] [5] [6]. Voters and policymakers must weigh these competing methodologies and recognize that much of the ultimate path depends on legislative choices and macroeconomic realities, not only any single president’s package [2].