What grocery categories have fallen in price in the last year and why?
Executive summary
Grocery inflation has eased in many areas over the past year, producing modest price declines in specific categories—notably some fresh produce, frozen vegetables, dairy and certain fats and oils—while other staples like eggs and beef have risen, making the overall story mixed rather than uniformly lower prices [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. Which categories actually fell: fresh produce, frozen veg, some dairy and fats
Several reporters and data trackers identify measurable year‑over‑year declines: tomatoes were reported down roughly 5.2%, frozen vegetables about 2.2%, and fats and oils (butter, peanut butter, salad dressing) about 2.3% in one local review of CPI data [2], while a broader index showed fruits and vegetables declining 0.5% in early 2025 [1]; Supermarket News noted that, for June 2024, fish and seafood, dairy products, fresh fruits and fresh vegetables were lower year‑over‑year [3].
2. Why those categories fell: seasonality, improved supplies and easing wholesale pressures
These declines track familiar drivers: seasonality and larger-than-expected supplies pushed down prices for some produce and frozen vegetables, and wholesale price relief and easing supply‑chain bottlenecks helped dairy and other processed categories moderate or fall [1] [4]. Government analysis and industry reporting attribute the broader deceleration in food‑at‑home inflation to cooling commodity pressures and less volatile supply constraints compared with the pandemic years [4].
3. Counterpoint: not a broad or permanent collapse—some categories rose and forecasts are mixed
The USDA’s Economic Research Service and other trackers emphasize the limits of the declines: ERS data show no categories experiencing “large” one‑month decreases in certain periods and forecast that several categories—including eggs, beef and veal, and sugar and sweets—will grow faster than their long‑run averages for 2025 [5]. Industry briefings and Grocery Dive reporting also flagged outsized price pressure from eggs and beef that offset stability elsewhere, and warned tariffs and animal disease risks could push prices back up [6] [7].
4. Retail tactics and structural frictions shaped what consumers see at the shelf
Retailers have used targeted price cuts and promotions to win shoppers amid affordability concerns—moves that can make headline prices fall in particular categories even if underlying costs remain elevated—while the shift to digital coupons and loyalty‑based discounts can produce uneven consumer experiences across income and tech access [7] [8]. SavingAdvice notes structural overhead—transportation, refrigeration, labor—remains high, which can blunt retailers’ ability to pass through commodity declines to final shelf prices [8].
5. What to read between the lines: volatility, localized effects and data limits
The observable decreases are uneven across regions and items: national CPI indices and point‑of‑sale trackers (NIQ used by outlets like NBC) can show different trajectories for the same category depending on timing and geography, and ERS cautions that short‑term swings don’t always signal sustained declines [9] [5]. Reporting relied on USDA/ERS summaries, regional CPI analyses and media price trackers—where those sources don’t report a decline, this account does not assert one occurred.
6. Bottom line for shoppers and policymakers
Shoppers experienced pockets of relief—notably cheaper tomatoes, some frozen vegetables and selected dairy/fats—largely because of seasonal supply and easing wholesale pressures, but strong upward pressure on eggs, beef and certain processed goods, plus structural retail costs and policy risks (tariffs, disease outbreaks), mean the overall grocery bill remains sensitive and likely to show mixed movement into 2025 [2] [1] [7] [5].