How are grocery prices compared to last year?
Executive summary
Grocery (food‑at‑home) prices are higher than they were a year ago: national data show grocery prices rose about 2.4 percent year‑over‑year by December 2025, while broader food prices (including restaurants) rose about 3.1 percent over the same period [1] [2]. Forecasts from the USDA’s Economic Research Service expect food price increases to moderate in 2026 (roughly 3.0 percent overall or around 2.3–3.0 percent for groceries depending on the source), but key staples and some regions will see outsized moves [3] [4].
1. What the official numbers say: modest but persistent year‑over‑year gains
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports overall food prices increased 3.1 percent from December 2024 to December 2025, with food‑at‑home—what people buy at grocery stores—rising 2.4 percent and food‑away‑from‑home (restaurants) rising 4.1 percent over that 12‑month span [2] [1]. Monthly CPI releases confirm grocery inflation remained above zero through late 2025, and the BLS’s December 2025 CPI summary shows continuing month‑to‑month pressures even as headline inflation cooled [5] [2].
2. Which items moved the most (and least): concentrated category swings
Not all groceries moved evenly: beef and veal saw sharp gains—Beef was about 16.4 percent higher in December 2025 than a year earlier—driven by a smaller U.S. cattle herd and tight supplies, while pork and eggs experienced notable month‑to‑month declines even as some staples stayed elevated [3]. Beverage materials like coffee rose steeply within grocery indexes, and several categories experienced one‑month swings of at least 1.0 percent, highlighting volatility within the grocery basket [2] [3].
3. Forecasts: slowing but still above long‑run norms
Government forecasts point to slower but positive price growth in 2026: USDA Economic Research Service projections put overall food price increases near 3.0 percent in 2026 (with a prediction interval), and some outlets report grocery price forecasts in the low‑to‑mid 2 percent range for 2026, reflecting expectations that food inflation will ease toward historical averages though remain above the long‑run “low” pace seen in earlier decades [3] [4] [6].
4. Geography and perception: shoppers feel it unevenly
Consumers report sharper pain than national averages imply: surveys show nearly half of Americans said groceries became harder to afford since 2024, and state‑level analyses document wide variation—some states saw grocery price changes twice as large as others—so a national 2–3 percent change translates to very different experiences at local aisles [7] [8]. Reporting from consumer sites and regional trackers confirms that urban, rural and regional supply‑chain differences, plus retail mix, produce uneven outcomes [8].
5. What that means for budgets and politics: real pressure, contested narratives
Even modest year‑over‑year grocery inflation—2–3 percent—matters because it compounds recent multi‑year shocks (double‑digit spikes in 2022 remain part of household memory), hits low‑income and fixed‑income households hardest, and fuels political debate; major outlets note political leaders sometimes misstate trends, while analysts stress that month‑to‑month volatility can drive headlines even when yearly rates moderate [4] [9] [7]. Forecast uncertainty and category‑specific volatility (beef, coffee, eggs) mean some staples will continue to strain budgets even if headline grocery inflation slows [3] [10].