Show me a chart of grocery price increase vs last year over the past 10 years
Executive summary
A clear, source-backed decade-long chart of grocery price "year‑over‑year" changes cannot be produced from the provided reporting because none of the items supplies a complete 10‑year annual series; instead, the available authorities (USDA ERS, BLS reporting cited by The New York Times, real‑time trackers) give snapshots, averages and forecasts that together draw a consistent narrative: grocery inflation spiked in the early 2020s, eased after 2022, and by December 2025 grocery (food‑at‑home) inflation was modestly positive at about 2.4% year over year, while the USDA projects slower food‑at‑home growth into 2026 [1] [2] [3].
1. Why a precise 10‑year chart isn’t deliverable from these sources
None of the supplied pieces publishes a complete table of annual food‑at‑home year‑over‑year percent changes for each calendar year over the past decade; the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and data aggregators do hold that time series but the excerpts here are descriptive or partial (BLS charts referenced by the sources and US Inflation Calculator summaries) rather than a full downloadable decade series in the provided snippets, so producing an exact plotted chart would require querying the BLS or FRED series directly (the FRED CPI series is cited by the reporting) rather than relying solely on the excerpts given [4] [5] [6].
2. What the available data points and summaries say about the trend
Authoritative summaries converge: food‑at‑home (grocery) prices rose substantially during and immediately after the pandemic years, pushing headline food inflation to multi‑percent levels, and then moderated — by December 2025 grocery prices were reported up about 2.4% versus a year earlier (The New York Times citing BLS data) while USDA‑ERS reports show a longer‑run average growth of about 2.6% per year for 2005–24, indicating that recent years were above then later closer to the long‑run mean [2] [1].
3. Conflicting snapshots and why they exist
Real‑time store‑level trackers and consumer panels register higher short‑term variability than the BLS monthly CPI index; for example, a ConsumerAffairs analysis of store scan data found a 5.3% year‑over‑year grocery increase in mid‑November 2025, reflecting point‑of‑sale item mixes and regional differences, even as the CPI‑based grocery measure read lower in December [7]. Those differences reflect methodology (basket composition, geographic coverage, and timing) and expose implicit agendas: retail trackers may emphasize immediate pain for shoppers, while official CPI reporting smooths volatility for macro measurement [7] [4].
4. An illustrative chart (conceptual) and how to read it
Using the narrative from the sources — pandemic spike 2020–22, easing 2023–25, December 2025 grocery +2.4%, USDA long‑run food‑at‑home average ~2.6% and a 2026 USDA forecast for food‑at‑home +1.7% — the visual would show a peak in 2021–22, a downward slope through 2023–25 ending near +2.4%, and a further modest projected dip in 2026; this is an illustrative depiction only because the specific annual percentages for every year of the last decade are not all provided in the materials supplied [1] [2] [3].
Year (illustrative) | YoY grocery (%)
2016 — ~1–2% (not specified in supplied sources) [1]
2017 — ~1–2% (not specified) [1]
2018 — ~1–2% (not specified) [1]
2019 — ~1–2% (not specified) [1]
2020 — rise begins (pandemic effects; not quantified in these excerpts) [8]
2021 — spike (pandemic/chain disruptions; not quantified here) [8]
2022 — peak years of elevated food inflation (widely reported; specific CPI values not in excerpts) [8]
2023 — moderation begins (reported in trackers and BLS summaries) [9]
2024 — continued easing toward long‑run average (ERS notes 2005–24 average) [1]
2025 — +2.4% grocery YoY in December per BLS reporting cited by NYT [2]
2026 (forecast) — USDA projects food‑at‑home +1.7% (prediction interval noted) [3]
5. How to get a precise downloadable chart and why to trust it
For a precise plotted chart with exact year‑by‑year percent changes, pull the BLS food‑at‑home CPI series or the FRED CPI food series directly (both are the underlying sources referenced in the reporting) and plot the 12‑month percent change for each calendar year; the articles and trackers cited point to those primary series as the authoritative source [4] [5] [6]. The USDA ERS provides forecasts and long‑run averages useful for context but the BLS remains the standard for consistent month‑to‑month YoY CPI measures [3] [1].