Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
Historical trends in Thanksgiving meal prices over the past decade
Executive Summary
The analyses collectively show mixed signals about Thanksgiving meal prices over the past decade, with some datasets and retailers reporting year‑over‑year declines while survey-based and government measures show pockets of higher costs relative to one or five years earlier. Government Consumer Price Index data and itemized BLS reporting show declines for certain items like other uncooked poultry between October 2023 and October 2024 even as categories such as fresh fruit and cheese rose, while survey and retail snapshot measures (Farm Bureau, Wells Fargo, Walmart/retail comparisons) report both increases and decreases depending on basket composition and brand choices, underscoring that the headline percentage change depends entirely on which basket and which timeframe are chosen [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6].
1. Headlines Clash: Which Numbers Are People Quoting?
Different actors are using different baskets to generate strikingly different headlines, and that choice explains the apparent contradiction. The AP analysis critiques a presidency claim of a 25% decline as misleading because it compares inconsistent items and quantities, noting that broader grocery indexes were actually 2.7% higher than in 2024 when measured consistently [2]. By contrast, a retail‑promotion comparison focused on a specific Walmart bundle found a 39.54% per‑person drop relative to last year’s retail offer, which overstates broader price trends because it measures a single retailer’s promotional bundle rather than market‑wide prices [7]. This demonstrates that selection bias in the basket construction and whether one uses promotional retail offers versus aggregate price indices drives the divergent narratives [2] [7].
2. Survey Voices Versus Price Indexes: Who Tells the Truer Story?
Survey‑based measures like the American Farm Bureau Federation’s long‑running Thanksgiving dinner survey report a 5% decrease from 2023 with a 10‑person meal costing $58.08, yet still 19% above 2019 levels, signaling that short‑term easing can coexist with a higher multi‑year baseline [4] [8]. Conversely, the Farm Bureau also issued a release noting a 20% increase year‑over‑year in some communications, reflecting either different survey timing or basket choices that emphasize higher‑priced centerpieces like a 16‑pound turkey ($28.96 cited) — a reminder that survey framing, geographic sampling and timing of price collection produce divergent, but internally consistent, pictures [3] [8]. Surveys capture shopper decisions and brand mixes; CPI data capture broad market price movements — both matter but measure different things [1] [4].
3. Retail Promotions and Brand Mixes Distort Comparisons
Retailers and banks offer illustrative snapshots showing modest declines or stability when focusing on private‑label or promotional bundles: Wells Fargo reported an all national‑brand menu at $95 and a private‑label option at $80, a small 2–3% decline from the prior year, while Newsweek highlighted a Walmart bundle under $4 per person—a very low‑cost promotional offering [5] [7]. These retail comparisons highlight that brand choice, store promotions and bundling tactics can produce headline figures that diverge from measures of overall consumer inflation, often favoring narratives of affordability when private‑label adoption or specific sales are emphasized [5] [7]. Analysts and communicators must disclose whether figures represent promotional retail pricing or broad price indices.
4. Item‑Level Trends Tell a More Nuanced Story
Looking at component items resolves some contradictions: BLS itemized data show a decline of 3.9% for other uncooked poultry from Oct 2023 to Oct 2024, while fresh fruit rose 2.2% and cheese rose 0.6%, indicating heterogeneous price movement within the traditional Thanksgiving basket rather than uniform inflation or deflation [1]. Newsweek and other analyses corroborate that some essentials (e.g., turkey, whole milk) fell while sides like rolls and cranberries increased, producing a net modest change depending on weightings [6]. This fragmentation means aggregate statements about “Thanksgiving prices” often mask offsetting item trends that significantly affect real household costs depending on consumption patterns [1] [6].
5. What to Watch Next and What’s Missing from the Debate
The differing claims reveal missing standardization: there is no single accepted “Thanksgiving basket” used consistently across actors, and timing and geographic coverage vary. The Farm Bureau survey, BLS CPI itemization, retail bundle pricing and private‑sector reports each provide relevant but non‑identical evidence, so the biggest omission in public discussion is a clear, standardized methodology presented alongside headline claims [4] [2] [5]. Policymakers and communicators should disclose basket composition, brand weighting and data collection dates when issuing comparisons, because without standardized methodology, competing percentages will continue to reflect relative framing more than absolute reality [2] [8].