How have global oil events affected gas prices since Joe Biden took office in 2021?

1. The big, simple story: demand rebounded after COVID and oil tightened

When Biden took office the global market was recovering from the pandemic shock; by 2021 demand rebounded sharply and inventories that had built up were drawn down, tightening markets and pushing crude and gasoline prices higher — the International Energy Agency concluded world markets were “rebalancing” after the Covid collapse and global stocks returned toward pre‑pandemic levels in 2021 ^{[1] [6]}. Multiple analysts cited by Newsweek and others say that surge in demand — especially from large Asian economies and U.S. recovery — was a dominant upward force on energy prices in 2021 ^{[4] [7]}.

2. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: an acute shock that spiked prices

The next major inflection was the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, which analysts and outlets including Fortune and the EIA link directly to sharp price spikes because Russia was a top global oil and gas producer and sanctions and market disruption raised costs and uncertainty ^{[2] [8]}. Reporting shows U.S. pump prices reached record national averages in mid‑2022 (about $4.91 per gallon) as markets digested the war, sanctions, and supply re‑routing ^[2].

3. What experts and fact‑checkers say about presidential responsibility

Independent fact‑checks and energy analysts repeatedly emphasize that a president’s power to control short‑term gasoline prices is limited; factors such as global supply/demand, OPEC+ decisions, and geopolitical shocks matter most (PolitiFact; EIA summaries) ^{[3] [9] [10]}. Fact‑checking outlets note that while prices were higher under Biden than under his predecessor at certain points, many experts attribute the moves to the economic rebound and the Ukraine war rather than solely to White House policy choices ^{[3] [9]}.

4. Domestic policy moves and contested effects

The Biden administration enacted and proposed policies that critics say could affect future supply — e.g., pauses or restrictions on federal leasing and later withdrawals of some offshore areas — but reporting and legal context show many such moves did not or could not immediately cut existing production, and some Biden‑era policies were later challenged or reversed in courts and politics ^{[11] [12] [13]}. Reuters and other reporting note the administration’s offshore restrictions were largely symbolic in some respects because they did not affect areas with active production, and U.S. production in several years actually hit record levels despite those policies ^{[12] [14]}.

5. Administration responses to high prices

The White House took steps intended to blunt price pain — from urging increased OPEC+ output, to Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, to asking regulators to examine trading and pricing — but officials and analysts told outlets these are limited tools that may ease short‑term spikes without fixing global market imbalances ^{[15] [16]}. BBC and CNBC coverage framed many of these actions as politically necessary but economically constrained, noting presidents historically have few levers over global crude pricing ^{[16] [15]}.

6. The political framing: competing narratives and evidence

Political actors used gas prices differently: Republicans and some industry groups blamed Biden’s policies for higher costs and argued policy changes reduced future supply, while many analysts, fact‑checkers, and neutral outlets pointed to global factors as primary drivers ^{[17] [3] [18]}. There is evidence on both sides: some Biden decisions (leases, regulatory changes) signaled future constraints, but U.S. production nevertheless rose and global events produced large near‑term price movements ^{[14] [19] [1]}.

7. Bottom line and limits of current reporting

Available reporting consistently ties the large pump‑price rise since 2021 to the global demand rebound and Russia’s war in Ukraine, while domestic policy choices are portrayed as influential mostly over the medium/long term or as politically useful targets — not sole causes of price spikes ^{[1] [2] [3]}. Sources do not provide a single causal attribution that pins the gas‑price trajectory solely on presidential action; available sources do not mention any definitive study proving the White House was the primary driver ^{[3] [4]}.

If you want, I can turn this into a timeline showing monthly U.S. average gas prices against key global events (pandemic recovery, OPEC+ meetings, Ukraine invasion) using the sources cited above.