Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
How inflation impacts holiday food costs in the US
Executive summary
Inflation is affecting holiday food costs unevenly: overall "food at home" prices rose about 2.7–3.1% year‑over‑year in recent BLS-linked reporting, while specific items — notably beef and eggs — showed much larger swings (beef +14.7% in one breakdown; eggs spiked then fell) [1] [2] [3] [4]. Analysts and agencies project modest food‑at‑home increases for 2025 (roughly 2.4%–2.7%), but localized shocks (avian flu, tariffs, supply disruptions) and consumer behavior mean holiday tables will feel impacts unevenly [5] [6] [7].
1. Food inflation numbers look modest overall — but hide big item swings
Official CPI‑linked measures show food‑at‑home inflation running in the high single digits? No — recent Consumer Price Index summaries and trackers put year‑over‑year "food at home" changes around 2.7% to 3.1% for the 12 months through September 2025, a moderation from earlier runaway spikes [1] [8] [2]. Yet category breakdowns tell a different story: beef and veal prices jumped as much as 14.7% in one visualization, and eggs experienced extreme volatility — a dramatic peak in 2025 followed by sharp declines — so the headline food CPI understates how much some holiday staples can diverge from the average [4] [3].
2. Holiday staples: turkeys, beef and eggs are the headline risks
Turkey prices are a recurring holiday flashpoint. USDA and university projections flagged turkey wholesale prices and retail averages well above last year — some reporting shows wholesale frozen whole hen turkeys projected at $1.32/lb in 2025 (a roughly 40% jump from the prior year) and retail estimates that could put November turkey nearer to 25% higher than 2024 in some analyses [7] [9] [6]. Beef has been a leading source of food‑price pain according to category visualizations, making any beef‑heavy holiday menu notably costlier [4]. Eggs, after an extraordinary spike to over $6/dozen at peak, had fallen substantially by September but remain well above pre‑pandemic levels — meaning baked goods and casseroles may still cost more than long‑term norms suggest [3].
3. Why some items jump more than headline inflation
The sources identify several drivers that create item‑level volatility even as headline food inflation cools: disease outbreaks among livestock (avian flu affecting turkey flocks), supply‑chain and labor constraints in particular industries, and trade or tariff policy that changes import prices for targeted goods like coffee or beef [7] [3] [10]. The USDA and Economic Research Service also point to weather, trade patterns and producer costs as reasons why food‑at‑home can move differently than the broader CPI [5].
4. What consumers are actually doing at the holiday table
Surveys and retailer analyses show Americans altering plans to blunt cost increases: switching menu items, shopping for discounts, choosing store brands, and relying more on potlucks or frozen produce to save money [1] [7] [9]. Retailers are touting low‑cost holiday bundles — and some corporate communications stress cheaper holiday meals this year — but those claims coexist with reporting of higher prices for specific proteins and surveys saying many families feel squeezed [1] [11] [12].
5. Policy moves, politics and mixed messaging around “cheaper” holidays
There is competing political narrative: the White House released a report asserting the classic Thanksgiving feast is about 3% cheaper than last year, while news outlets and analysts point to higher prices for turkeys and targeted exemptions from tariffs for food items as policy responses to affordability concerns [11] [10] [7]. Readers should note the potential for messaging incentives: government or campaign communications may emphasize favorable aggregates, while independent analysts highlight specific pressures that matter most to households.
6. Who is most exposed — and where reporting flags gaps
Low‑income households and those relying on SNAP face the biggest risks: experts warn that modest cost‑of‑living adjustments and policy changes to benefits can worsen food insecurity during the holidays, even when headline inflation cools [13]. Available sources do not mention precise household‑level budget elasticities for every region, so local grocery lists and promotional cycles will materially affect whether any individual family feels relief or strain (not found in current reporting) [13].
7. Practical takeaways for holiday shoppers
Expect modest overall food‑at‑home inflation (~2.4–2.7% per USDA/ERS and CPI links) but plan for large variation across items — budget more for proteins (turkey, beef), watch eggs and dairy pricing, and use retailer deals, store brands and potluck strategies to reduce per‑person cost [5] [6] [7] [1]. If you rely on benefits, follow program updates closely: policymakers and benefit timing can change what assistance is available during the holidays [13].
Limitations: this analysis relies on the CPI/USDA/ERS reporting, university forecasts and contemporary journalism cited above; item‑level promotions, regional supply shocks and retailer price tactics may alter household outcomes in ways not fully covered by the cited sources [8] [6] [4].