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How much has Trump increased the federal deficit for 2025
Executive summary
President Trump’s first year in office saw the federal deficit for fiscal year (FY) 2025 come in around $1.8 trillion — roughly $41 billion smaller than FY2024 according to Treasury and CBO-era reporting, but still well above $1 trillion and contributing to a rising national debt that passed the mid-$30 trillion mark in 2025 [1] [2]. Major policy moves — a large tax-and-spending package called the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBBA) and new tariffs — are widely projected to raise deficits over the coming decade by trillions more even as tariffs temporarily boosted revenues in FY2025 [3] [1] [4].
1. What the headline numbers show: FY2025 and the short run
Official and mainstream accounts put the FY2025 deficit at about $1.8 trillion (reported as $1.775 trillion by Reuters and similarly rounded by Treasury summaries) — a modest decline (~$41 billion or about 2%) from FY2024, driven in part by record customs (tariff) receipts and cuts in certain outlays such as education [1] [5] [2]. These same reports note total receipts and outlays hit record levels — roughly $5.2 trillion in receipts and about $7.0 trillion in outlays in FY2025 according to Treasury accounting [1] [2].
2. How much the deficit "increased under Trump" in calendar 2025
If you measure deficits while Trump was in office for portions of FY2025, some trackers show the cumulative deficit during January–September 2025 (months he served in that fiscal year) was about $1.079 trillion — a 1.4% increase relative to the comparable months before — meaning deficits were slightly higher on his watch for those months [6] [7]. Other calendarized measures show gross federal debt rose from roughly $36.22 trillion on Jan. 20, 2025, to about $38 trillion by Oct. 23, 2025 — an increase of roughly $1.7–$1.8 trillion during his first 276 days in office [8].
3. Why short-term figures can be misleading: timing, receipts and outlays
Analysts stress that single-year or partial-year comparisons can mask timing shifts (tax payment dates, one-time transfers from the Fed, programmatic spending changes) and policy levers such as tariff timing and education loan program changes that reduced outlays in FY2025 [5] [2]. For example, large customs receipts from tariffs were a significant factor lowering the FY2025 deficit relative to FY2024, but revenue gains were offset by declines in corporate tax receipts and higher outlays for healthcare, retirement programs and interest [1] [2].
4. The decade outlook: trillions more from legislation
Independent budget scorers and the CBO warn that Trump’s signature reconciliation package will add substantially to deficits over the next ten years. Estimates vary: the Congressional Budget Office and Joint Tax Committee projections cited in reporting put multi‑trillion increases (CBO/JCT and related estimates roughly $3–$3.8 trillion or more over a decade), the Tax Foundation and other analysts put long-run revenue losses in the multi‑trillion range, and media reporting summarized that the bill could raise deficits by about $3.4 trillion over ten years [3] [9] [4] [10]. These estimates depend on whether analysts include dynamic growth effects and which offsets are assumed [9].
5. Tariffs: a temporary revenue boost, contested permanence
Tariffs produced record customs receipts in FY2025 and helped shrink that year’s deficit modestly, but many nonpartisan analysts and watchdogs warn the gains could be temporary, legally vulnerable, or economically harmful in the long run. Some watchdog scenarios show tariff-related revenues might not fully materialize if court rulings curtail the tariff regime, and several analyses caution tariffs can reduce economic output even if they boost short-term receipts [1] [11] [9].
6. Competing narratives and where reporting disagrees
The Trump White House and allies framed tariffs and spending cuts as deficit-reducing; Reuters, Treasury reports and some trackers confirm tariffs raised receipts and helped shave the FY2025 deficit slightly [1] [2]. Conversely, nonpartisan budget groups (CRFB, Penn-Wharton, Moody’s cited in reporting) and many economists warn that the combination of large tax cuts in OBBBA and increases in defense/immigration spending will add trillions to deficits over the medium term — a point reinforced by multiple scoring efforts [10] [11] [9].
7. Bottom line and caveats for interpreting “how much Trump increased the deficit for 2025”
Available reporting shows FY2025’s official deficit was about $1.8 trillion — modestly below FY2024’s deficit by roughly $41 billion, partly because of tariff revenue and timing effects [1] [2]. However, calendar-year and president‑on-watch measures show debt and cumulative deficits rose substantially during Trump’s first months in office (debt up roughly $1.7–$1.8 trillion by Oct. 2025), and long-term scoring of new legislation projects multi‑trillion increases to deficits over the coming decade [8] [3] [9]. Available sources do not mention a single, uncontested dollar figure that isolates “Trump’s share” of the 2025 deficit independent of inherited trends, timing shifts and policy interactions — analysts instead present multiple, sometimes divergent measures and projections [6] [1] [11].