Whose inflation is higher Biden’s or Trumps
Executive summary
Data compiled by multiple outlets show inflation was substantially higher during Joe Biden’s presidency (roughly mid-single digits annual averages) than during Donald Trump’s four years (generally low single digits or below 2%), though the comparison is shaped by the pandemic’s collapse in prices and a sharp post‑pandemic rebound and by different economic shocks and policy choices [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. The headline numbers: averages and where they come from
Multiple analyses put the average annual inflation rate under Trump in the low single digits—examples include a widely cited Republican pollster slide contrasting “1% vs. 5%” for Trump vs. Biden, and analyses showing inflation generally stayed below 3% (often under 2%) across Trump’s four years before the pandemic disruption [1] [4]; by contrast, reporting and summaries of CPI trends show Biden’s tenure produced an average annual inflation rate near 5% (some outlets cite 5–5.8%), driven by a steep rise starting in 2021 and cooling back toward the Fed’s target in 2023 [2] [3] [5].
2. Timing and volatility matter: why simple averages can mislead
Averaging compresses important timing differences: inflation under Trump trended low and stable until the pandemic cratered activity and briefly pushed inflation near zero, whereas under Biden inflation spiked sharply in 2021 and remained elevated into mid‑2023 before moderating as the Federal Reserve tightened policy [2] [4]. Critics and supporters alike use different slices—monthly versus annual averages, or peak versus later values—to make their point; for example, one source compares monthly averages (1.9% under Trump and 5.8% under Biden) while others emphasize multi‑year averages or peak-to‑current declines [5] [3].
3. Causation is contested: presidents, Fed actions and global shocks
Most reporting cautions that presidents do not directly control the inflation rate—monetary policy, global supply shocks, and the pandemic were major drivers—but it is also true that fiscal policy, tariffs, and regulatory choices shape demand and supply pressures over time [2] [4] [6]. Coverage notes the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes starting in 2022 helped cool inflation, a dynamic separate from but interacting with White House policies [2] [7]. Analyses differ on attribution: some blame pandemic‑era stimulus and demand surges for Biden‑era inflation, while others point to supply constraints, energy markets and policy decisions that span administrations [2] [6].
4. Predictions and partisan framings complicate the picture
Projections add another layer: Moody’s scenario analysis suggested that a future Trump administration could produce slightly higher inflation in the near term relative to Biden’s plan, largely because of policy stances like tariffs and tax cuts, even as historical data show lower inflation during Trump’s actual four years [8]. Much of the sourced commentary is explicitly partisan or advocacy driven—North Star Opinion Research and outlets such as NewsBusters and American Thinker frame the numbers politically—so their figures and emphases should be read as operating with political intent alongside independent analyses [1] [5] [9].
5. Bottom line: who had higher inflation, judged by the record?
By the standard most journalists and economists use—average CPI inflation during each president’s time in office and the documented post‑pandemic spike—Biden’s presidency experienced higher inflation than Trump’s four years, with Biden‑era averages around the mid‑single digits versus Trump’s low‑single‑digit or sub‑2% era; however, the comparison requires context about the pandemic’s price collapse, the Fed’s response, and differing policy choices, and some forward‑looking analyses argue future policies could change that trajectory [1] [2] [3] [4] [8].