Fact check: Is it true? Inflation is down

1. Summary of the results

The claim that "inflation is down" is largely contradicted by the available data. Multiple sources show that inflation has actually increased in recent months:

• The annual inflation rate rose to 2.4% in May 2025 from April's 2.3%, representing an upward trend rather than a decline ^[1]
• Core PCE inflation posted a reading of 2.7% in May, which is above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and indicates upward pressure on prices ^[2]
• Looking at the broader trend, inflation rose 2.9% from December 2023 to December 2024, showing sustained inflationary pressure ^[3]

However, there are some nuanced perspectives within the data. While the annual rate increased, some economists believe the monthly inflation rate provides a more accurate picture of underlying trends, suggesting that inflation may have stabilized closer to the Federal Reserve's target ^[4].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original statement lacks several critical pieces of context:

• Future inflationary pressures: The analyses reveal that tariffs are expected to raise consumer prices in coming months, which could further increase inflation ^[4]
• Policy implications: The Inflation Reduction Act's potential repeal could harm state economies and raise consumer costs, while its continuation is projected to grow the economy by $1.9 trillion over ten years ^{[5] [6]}
• Employment and investment context: The clean energy sector has created over 100,000 new jobs and attracted $100 billion in private investment, which could have indirect effects on inflation through economic growth ^[7]

Beneficiaries of different narratives:

• Political figures and parties promoting economic success would benefit from the "inflation is down" narrative
• Federal Reserve officials might benefit from suggesting inflation is under control to justify monetary policy decisions
• Clean energy advocates and companies benefit from emphasizing the Inflation Reduction Act's economic benefits

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The statement "inflation is down" appears to be misleading or outdated based on the most recent data available. The claim could represent:

• Selective data interpretation: Focusing on longer-term trends while ignoring recent monthly increases
• Political messaging: The statement may reflect partisan talking points rather than current economic reality
• Temporal bias: The claim might be based on older data that doesn't reflect the May 2025 increase to 2.4% ^[1]

The core inflation rate of 2.7% being above the Federal Reserve's target particularly undermines the claim that inflation is definitively "down" ^[2]. The statement fails to acknowledge the mixed signals in the data and the expected future pressures from policy changes like tariffs ^[4].