What do economists say about overall inflation differences between Trump and Biden?

1. The basic arithmetic: averages, peaks and measures

By the most-cited yardsticks, inflation rose sharply in 2021–2022 under Biden—reaching a roughly 9% year‑over‑year peak—and averaged near 4.95–5.4% across his four years, compared with about 1.9% across Trump’s first four years, according to multiple data summaries and retrospectives ^{[1] [2] [5]}. Economists warn that such comparisons can be misleading unless one fixes the metric—annualized versus year‑over‑year, headline CPI versus core CPI, or averages versus single-month peaks—because each tells a different story about persistence and policy impact ^{[6] [7]}.

2. Why economists attribute the Biden-era surge to extra-economic shocks, not solely to presidential choices

Most mainstream economists attribute the 2021–22 spike to a mix of pandemic-era supply disruptions, rapid reopening demand, energy shocks (including the war in Ukraine) and large fiscal stimulus like the American Rescue Plan, with the Federal Reserve subsequently hiking rates to cool demand—factors that go beyond the unilateral control of any president ^{[3] [1] [2]}. Fact‑checking and long-form analyses repeatedly stress that stimulus played a role but that global supply constraints and energy price swings were central drivers ^{[3] [5]}.

3. The Trump-era picture: low averages, then modest easing — and important caveats

Inflation was historically low during Trump’s first term (about 1.9% average), and early data from his second term show headline inflation around the 2.7–3.0% range with core measures modestly lower, prompting some economists to say inflation has eased modestly under Trump ^{[8] [4] [9]}. Yet fact‑checkers and reporters note this improvement is small and sensitive to whether volatile food and energy are included, and that short-term downward moves don’t erase the higher price level that accumulated during 2021–22 ^{[7] [9] [4]}.

4. New policy risks under Trump that economists flag

While tariffs haven’t produced runaway inflation to date, many economists warned—and continue to warn—that large, enduring tariffs raise producer and consumer prices and could raise headline inflation over time as import costs are passed through, especially if importers stop absorbing costs ^{[4] [10]}. Commentators also point out the political messaging sometimes cherry-picks annualized snapshots to make numbers look better, a practice economists criticize for obscuring the true trend ^{[6] [10]}.

5. Conflicting narratives and the role of politics in framing the numbers

Political actors on both sides seize different metrics: the Trump White House highlights falling recent rates and core CPI milestones, while opponents stress Biden-era accumulated price increases and the 2022 peak; analysts from outlets like CNN, PolitiFact and FactCheck note many of these public claims are technically accurate but framed in ways that mislead by omission ^{[11] [6] [5] [7]}. Opinion pieces and administration statements add competing interpretations—some praising current declines and others warning the full effects of tariffs and policy choices may yet push prices up ^{[12] [11] [4]}.

6. Bottom line economists give: context trumps single numbers

Economists’ consensus: Biden presided over a period of unusually high inflation driven by pandemic-era shocks and large fiscal support, while measured inflation has been lower and modestly easing under Trump so far; but determining “who caused what” requires nuance—measure selection, timing, global shocks, and Fed policy all matter, and new Trump policies (notably tariffs) create upside risks to future inflation ^{[3] [2] [4] [7]}. Reporters and fact‑checkers repeatedly counsel skepticism of simple headline comparisons and urge looking at cumulative price changes, core vs. headline measures, and policy lags when evaluating claims ^{[6] [5] [9]}.