Fact check: Is it true that inflation is down?

1. Summary of the results

Based on the analyses provided, inflation is not definitively "down" - the picture is more nuanced than a simple yes or no answer. Current data shows that the annual inflation rate in the US rose to 2.4% in May 2025 ^[1], with the personal consumption expenditures price index showing an annual inflation rate at 2.3% ^[2]. The Consumer Price Index increased 0.1 percent in May, with the all items index increasing 2.4 percent annually ^[3].

However, there is evidence of longer-term improvement. Inflation has slowed significantly over the past two years, with the 12-month change in the PCE price index declining about 5 percentage points since its peak in 2022 ^[4]. This suggests that while current inflation rates remain above the Federal Reserve's typical 2% target, there has been substantial progress from previous highs.

The Federal Reserve's projections indicate mixed signals, with core PCE inflation projected at 3.1%, higher than the previous 2.8% projection ^[5], suggesting policymakers expect some upward pressure on inflation.

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original question lacks crucial temporal context. "Down" compared to what baseline? The analyses reveal that inflation has decreased dramatically from 2022 peaks but remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. This distinction is critical for accurate assessment.

Political and economic stakeholders benefit differently from various inflation narratives:

• Current administration officials would benefit from emphasizing the significant decline from 2022 peaks
• Opposition political figures would benefit from highlighting that inflation remains above target levels
• Federal Reserve policymakers must balance both perspectives while maintaining credibility

The analyses also reveal important policy context missing from the original question. The Inflation Reduction Act has created over 100,000 new jobs in clean energy manufacturing ^[6] and is projected to grow the economy by $1.9 trillion over ten years while creating 13.7 million jobs ^[7]. Repealing this legislation could lead to higher consumer costs and job losses ^[8].

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The question "Is it true that inflation is down?" contains inherent bias through its oversimplification of a complex economic indicator. This framing encourages a binary response when inflation trends require nuanced analysis across multiple timeframes and metrics.

The question also lacks temporal specificity - down from when? This ambiguity allows for selective interpretation depending on the respondent's agenda. Central banks' communication can influence households' inflation expectations ^[9], making the framing of inflation discussions particularly important for public perception.

The binary framing potentially serves those who benefit from either celebrating recent progress or criticizing current levels, rather than providing citizens with the complete economic picture needed for informed decision-making.