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Is Thanksgiving cheaper than last year
Executive summary
Reports are mixed: some measures find Thanksgiving meal costs down slightly (roughly 2–3%) versus last year while other data and item-specific reports show big price jumps — especially for turkey, which some models put 25–40% higher (Wells Fargo and regional checks show a small overall drop; Purdue and USDA‑linked analysis show much higher turkey costs) [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. “It’s cheaper” — slices of reporting that support a small decline
Several outlets and institutional analyses conclude the cost of a typical Thanksgiving spread is modestly lower than last year: Wells Fargo reported a 10-person meal could be about $80 (store brands) to $95 (name brands) and said the cost has fallen up to about 3% year‑over‑year [1]; local supermarket comparisons and a Gerrity’s/Wells Fargo summary show a roughly 2–2.7% decline for selected baskets of staples [4]. These findings are echoed by news pieces noting retailers’ low‑priced “meal baskets” and supermarket promotions that lower the dollar amount a consumer pays for a preselected set of items [5] [6].
2. “But the turkey shock” — where costs jump and why it matters
Countering the small‑decline story is strong reporting on turkey prices: Purdue’s model predicts retail turkey around $2.05/lb — about 25% higher than a year ago — and CNBC notes wholesale turkey prices rose roughly 40% year‑over‑year, driven by avian flu‑related supply shocks [2] [3]. Because the whole‑bird is central to many Thanksgiving menus, large increases in turkey prices can raise total bills even if some other items fall or retailers pare down baskets [3] [7].
3. Retailers’ “cheaper” baskets — a packaging trick, not necessarily a full price cut
Major retailers (Walmart, Target, Aldi) are marketing significantly lower‑priced Thanksgiving bundles, but Reuters, FactCheck.org and other pieces note these kits often contain fewer items or cheaper private‑label brands compared with last year’s versions; Walmart’s 2025 basket contains fewer products than 2024’s and swaps brand names for store brands, which explains much of the headline price drop [5] [8]. Journalists and fact‑checkers flag that a lower‑priced basket does not equate to broad deflation across grocery aisles [8] [9].
4. Measurement differences explain the disagreement
Analysts use different baskets, sample sizes and methodologies: Wells Fargo, Empower, Gerrity’s local supermarket checks, and the American Farm Bureau track slightly different item lists and price sources [1] [10] [4] [11]. Some measures focus on a minimal, store‑brand 10‑person list; others look at a fuller, name‑brand basket or county‑level store prices. Those methodological choices produce opposite headlines: “meal down a few percent” when using slimmer, store‑brand lists [1] [10], versus “turkeys up sharply” when focusing on poultry wholesale and retail models [2] [3].
5. Policy, tariffs and other forces complicate the picture
Reporting ties price movements to policy and supply shocks: tariffs on steel and aluminum are blamed for higher packaging costs that raise canned‑vegetable prices about 5% (per NPR), and trade or tariff shifts are referenced in broader inflation debates [12]. Avian flu and supply reductions are repeatedly named as drivers of large turkey price jumps, and retailers have responded by changing product mixes to hold advertised prices down [3] [12] [5].
6. What this means for shoppers and the broader headline “cheaper” claim
If you buy a curated, store‑brand meal kit from a discount retailer you may pay less this Thanksgiving than last year; that is supported in multiple retail comparisons [5] [9]. But if your shopping list centers on a whole turkey or name‑brand items, you may face noticeably higher costs because turkey and some staples have risen substantially [2] [3] [7]. FactCheck.org warns that political claims citing retailer basket prices can be misleading if they omit that baskets were pared down and private brands substituted [8].
7. Bottom line: nuance over a single headline
Available reporting shows both small overall declines in select Thanksgiving baskets (around 2–3%) and large item‑specific increases — notably turkeys up roughly 25–40% in some analyses — largely explained by different baskets, retailer substitutions, and supply shocks [1] [2] [3] [4]. A simple “cheaper” or “more expensive” answer depends on which items and which measurement you use; readers should compare the exact basket and brands behind any price claim before drawing conclusions [8] [5].