Is the debt rising?
Executive summary
Yes — by every major official measure the U.S. federal debt has risen in recent years and hit new nominal highs in 2025: gross federal debt reached about $38 trillion (reported as $38.09 trillion in early November), a roughly $2.18 trillion increase over the prior year (Nov 2024–Nov 2025) [1] [2]. Debt held by the public is near or above the size of the economy, interest costs have jumped, and annual deficits remain large — about $1.8 trillion in FY2025 — all of which explain why the debt is increasing [1] [3] [4].
1. The headline: nominal debt is climbing and just hit new records
Multiple official and analytic sources report gross national debt at roughly $38 trillion in 2025, with the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget calling out the milestone and the Senate Joint Economic Committee quantifying a $2.18 trillion year‑over‑year rise and an average daily increase of about $5.97 billion over the last year [1] [2]. The Treasury’s daily “Debt to the Penny” data underpin these headline numbers [5].
2. What “debt” means here — two basic measures
Available sources emphasize two related figures: gross federal (or total public) debt and debt held by the public. Gross federal debt includes intragovernmental holdings (trust funds such as Social Security) plus debt held by the public; debt held by the public is the economists’ preferred metric because it reflects borrowing financed by outside creditors. As of 2025, debt held by the public was reported in the high‑$20 trillions while intragovernmental holdings added several trillion more to reach the roughly $38 trillion gross total [6] [1].
3. Why the debt is growing now: deficits and rising interest costs
The immediate drivers are persistent large budget deficits and higher interest rates. Analysts cite a FY2025 deficit near $1.8 trillion and note that net interest payments have risen sharply — projections show net interest nearing double‑digit shares of outlays in coming years — which both add to and amplify the debt trajectory [1] [4] [3]. In short: big deficits plus higher borrowing costs mean more new debt issuance.
4. Political and policy context: debt limit and recent legislation
Congress and the Treasury have been active actors. The July 2025 budget reconciliation law raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, and Treasury used extraordinary measures earlier in 2025 to manage cash; those maneuvers affect timing but not the underlying accumulation of debt [7]. Political standoffs and short‑term fixes can produce volatility in headlines even while the underlying debt trend continues upward [7].
5. Is the rise economically dangerous — competing views
There is disagreement among experts and institutions. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warns that debt held by the public is as large as the economy and calls the fiscal picture “bleak,” noting rising annual deficits and growing interest outlays [1]. Some market observers and big banks note that investors remain willing to finance U.S. borrowing for now — long‑term Treasury demand and yields matter — but they caution about scenarios where market sentiment changes and borrowing costs spike [8]. Both perspectives are present in the coverage: current markets show buyer appetite, yet the fiscal trajectory raises medium‑term risks [8] [1].
6. Data sources and limits: what the records do — and don’t — tell us
Daily Treasury “Debt to the Penny” tables provide up‑to‑date nominal totals; FRED and other historical series provide trend context [5] [9]. But nominal debt alone omits context such as GDP growth, interest rates, and the composition/maturity of debt — all crucial to understanding sustainability. The JEC and CRFB include more granular breakdowns and projections, but different measures (gross vs. public) produce different narratives; readers must note which measure is cited [2] [1].
7. Bottom line and what to watch next
The debt is rising now in nominal terms, propelled by persistent deficits and higher interest costs; gross debt hit roughly $38 trillion in 2025 and rose about $2.18 trillion year‑over‑year [1] [2]. Watch three things for whether the rise accelerates or moderates: annual deficit trajectories in upcoming budget reports, average interest rates on marketable debt and Treasury yields, and policy moves — tax, spending, or debt‑limit legislation — that materially change receipts or outlays [3] [1] [7]. Available sources do not mention whether specific proposed policy changes after November 2025 have been enacted.