Is national US debt going down?
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Executive summary
The U.S. national debt is not going down; it has recently reached about $38.4 trillion and continues to grow year over year — roughly $2.2 trillion higher than a year earlier as of early December 2025 (Joint Economic Committee) [1]. Multiple independent trackers and budget offices show debt rising in 2024–2025, debt held by the public near 100% of GDP, and net interest costs topping $1 trillion annually, all signaling an expanding burden rather than decline [1] [2] [3].
1. The headline: the debt is higher now than last year
Official reporting compiled by the Joint Economic Committee places gross national debt at $38.40 trillion as of December 3, 2025, an increase of $2.23 trillion from a year earlier; the JEC also calculates the average daily increase over recent years and projects continued near-term growth [1]. Treasury’s daily “Debt to the Penny” data underpins those totals and is updated every business day [4].
2. Behind the numbers: gross debt vs. debt held by the public
Observers distinguish “gross” or total federal debt (which includes intragovernmental holdings) from “debt held by the public.” RAND and the Congressional Budget Office both report the fiscal reality that debt held by the public is approaching or at about 100% of GDP — a historically high level — and rose in 2025 relative to 2024 [3] [2]. Those shifts matter for borrowing costs and how much the economy must service debt going forward [2].
3. Interest costs are a growing driver of the budget problem
Net interest on the debt has surged: analysts report interest costs exceeding $1 trillion per year and note that net interest is a growing share of federal outlays. The JEC and CBO data show interest rising sharply over recent years, a major component of why deficits persist even when headline revenues sometimes tick up [1] [2].
4. Recent policy and timing effects magnify accumulation
Several groups trace part of the recent rapid accumulation to policy timing — including periods before and after debt-limit fights and legislative changes that shifted borrowing and payments — and to fiscal choices such as tax and spending laws in 2025. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and other trackers attribute fast growth to delayed borrowing around the debt ceiling and to enacted fiscal measures [5] [6] [7].
5. Short-term calendar quirks can disguise long-term trends
Monthly and daily Treasury snapshots can fluctuate because of timing shifts (e.g., when large payments are made, when tax collections occur, or when extraordinary measures have been used). The Treasury dataset “Debt to the Penny” records daily totals and is the technical source for the headline amounts; CBO and budget analysts emphasize that timing can alter monthly deficits even while the multi-year trend remains upward [4] [2].
6. What independent trackers and analysts say about trajectory
Non-government analysts (CRFB, RAND, Fortune, PBS) and real-time trackers chart a rapid climb — milestones of $34T in early 2024 to $38T in late 2025 — and warn the pace outside the pandemic has been unusually fast [8] [5] [3] [9]. The CBO’s post‑FY2025 assessment shows deficits and debt ratios remain elevated, and several organizations project further increases absent policy changes [2] [10].
7. Political arguments and competing narratives
Political actors offer differing takes: some emphasize that short-term deficits reflect temporary policy choices or timing anomalies and argue for growth or targeted reforms; others highlight structural drivers (aging population, rising health costs, tax laws) and call for more aggressive deficit reduction. Sources here document both the arithmetic of rising debt and the policy debates around how to address it [6] [3] [7].
8. Bottom line and limits of available reporting
Available sources consistently show the U.S. national debt increasing in 2024–2025 and do not support the claim that the national debt is going down; instead they document recent record highs near $38.4 trillion and rising interest burdens [1] [3] [2]. If you want daily confirmation of the current headline figure, Treasury’s “Debt to the Penny” dataset is the primary daily source [4]. Sources do not mention any sustained, official reversal in the multi-year upward trend (not found in current reporting).