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Joe Biden’s total inflation
Executive summary
Joe Biden’s presidency saw a sharp spike in measured consumer inflation — a 12‑month peak of 9.1% in June 2022 — and an average annual CPI inflation rate across his term of about 4.95% according to some calculations [1] [2]. Different measures and political actors frame “total inflation” very differently: the White House and congressional Republicans use alternate indexes (CPI vs. PCE) and time windows to support competing narratives [3] [4].
1. The headline facts: what the official series report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 9.1% year‑over‑year increase for the 12 months ending June 2022 — the largest such jump in over 40 years — and reporters and fact‑checkers repeatedly cite that spike as the defining peak of Biden’s inflation episode [1]. Investopedia’s compilation calculates an average year‑over‑year inflation rate under Biden at roughly 4.95% [2]. Congressional Republicans, using the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and other aggregates, sometimes report cumulative increases near 19–20% since January 2021 — a figure that reflects a different index and cumulative change rather than an “average annual rate” [4].
2. Which inflation number matters — CPI, PCE, average or cumulative?
Economists and policymakers prefer different measures. The Fed favors the PCE price index for policy because it captures a broader set of expenditures and adjusts weights over time; the public and media commonly cite CPI because it tracks out‑of‑pocket consumer costs like rent and groceries (available sources do not mention an exhaustive methodological comparison beyond these references; [4]; p1_s5). That choice matters: PCE and CPI move together but can differ in magnitude, so statements like “prices rose nearly 20% under Biden” use cumulative PCE framing, while “Biden’s average inflation was 4.95%” reports a yearly average from CPI calculations [4] [2].
3. The politics of framing: blame, credit, and selective windows
Political actors use the metric that best supports their case. The White House and pro‑administration commentators highlight the decline in inflation later in Biden’s term and stress progress in bringing prices down [3]. Republicans and House committee statements emphasize the total price rise over the presidency to argue a large “inflation tax” on families [4]. Independent outlets and fact‑checkers note the painful mid‑term spike and that inflation cooled after the Fed raised interest rates — a nuance used by both sides to claim vindication [1] [5].
4. Causes and contested explanations
Reporting attributes the inflation surge to multiple shocks and policy choices: post‑pandemic demand recovery, supply disruptions, and the energy shock after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are repeatedly cited by analysts [2] [6]. Partisan accounts differ on weight: critics stress stimulus and “radical” spending as ignition points [3], while many journalists and economists emphasize global factors and monetary conditions, with the Fed’s rate increases later driving disinflation [2] [5]. Sources note disagreement over how much administration fiscal policy vs. global events mattered [6] [5].
5. What happened to wages and purchasing power?
Several analyses document that wages rose during the period but struggled to fully keep pace with the fastest price increases. One academic review found wages grew substantially from mid‑2022 to January 2025 but that cumulative price increases from January 2021 through January 2025 outpaced wage gains, producing a modest decline in real (inflation‑adjusted) hourly earnings over the full period [7]. FactCheck and others highlight that purchasing power fell most sharply around the 2022 peak, and then improved as inflation cooled [1] [7].
6. How to read competing claims responsibly
When you see claims like “inflation averaged nearly 5% under Biden” or “prices rose nearly 20% under Biden,” read them as different mathematical statements: the first is an average annual rate, the second is cumulative change over the presidency and often uses a different index (CPI vs. PCE). Verify which index and which time window are being cited before accepting a political claim at face value [2] [4]. Independent fact‑checks and mainstream outlets (AP, CNN, FactCheck.org) document the peak, the subsequent cooling, and the role of the Fed, offering a useful cross‑check of partisan narratives [8] [9] [1].
Limitations: available sources supplied here summarize major measures, peaks, averages and partisan frames but do not include the complete BLS/PCE tables or a full methodological appendix; readers seeking exact month‑by‑month series should consult BLS and BEA original data releases referenced in those reports [1] [4].