How do Mega Millions and SuperLotto Plus prize pools and payout percentages compare over time?
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Executive summary
Mega Millions, a multi‑state game with very large, nationally pooled jackpots, allocates roughly three quarters of its prize pool to the jackpot and has been restructured in recent years to push advertised jackpots higher [1]; SuperLotto Plus is California’s single‑state pick‑6 style game with smaller base jackpots, pari‑mutuel lower‑tier payouts, and an overall payout profile that historically returns a much smaller fraction of gross sales to players on top prizes and smaller prizes alike [2] [3] [4].
1. How the prize pools are built: national pooling vs. California pari‑mutuel
Mega Millions pools ticket sales across dozens of jurisdictions, producing much larger advertised jackpots and allowing a rule set that directs roughly 75% of the prize pool toward the jackpot (a change reflected in the modern prize structure) while preserving fixed or systemwide prize tiers such as the $1 million second prize that was formalized in earlier format changes [1]; by contrast, SuperLotto Plus is a California‑only game whose prize levels below the jackpot are paid pari‑mutuel (they vary with sales and number of winners), meaning California’s SuperLotto Plus prize pool and per‑tier payouts fluctuate locally and are not fixed like some Mega Millions tiers outside California [2] [1].
2. Payout percentages and returns to players: much lower on SuperLotto Plus by some measures
Analyses that model “return on money bet” show SuperLotto Plus returning a small fraction of sales to players beyond its advertised prizes in certain snapshots — one calculation cited about $5.04 million in ticket sales and only $75,000 in additional prizes, a 1.49% return figure for that margin, illustrating how low incremental payouts can be when jackpots are small or rollovers dry up [4]; by implication, Mega Millions’ reallocation of about 75% of the prize pool to jackpots reduces the share available for other prizes but produces larger headline jackpots and, via multiplier options like the Megaplier, different consumer value propositions [1].
3. How jackpots and frequency compare over time
Because Mega Millions is played in most states and has longer odds for top prizes, its jackpots routinely roll higher and less frequently produce winners, producing the nine‑figure and occasional billion‑dollar headlines (for example, Mega Millions’ record $1.537 billion winner in 2018) while SuperLotto Plus — with smaller starting jackpots (historically reported minimums like $7 million or $15 million at different times) and a smaller pool of players — tends to reach large amounts far less often [5] [6] [7]. Reporting from different years shows Mega Millions rollovers reaching dozens of consecutive misses during big runs, whereas SuperLotto Plus can climb to a community‑size jackpot after only a handful of misses [7].
4. Ticket price and structural changes that affect payouts
Price changes and format revisions alter effective returns: Mega Millions moved to $5 plays in its 2025 format and added or adjusted features such as multipliers and a “Just the Jackpot” option, which along with a ~75% jackpot allocation changes how prize pools and advertised jackpots behave [1]. SuperLotto Plus remains a $1 play in California with a 30‑year annuity option or cash choice and pari‑mutuel lower tiers; California law also treats many prizes differently (with state withholding rules and pari‑mutuel payment differences) which affects the net amounts winners receive versus advertised amounts [8] [3].
5. What this means for players and public policy over time
For players chasing headline jackpots, Mega Millions’ national pooling and structural tilt toward big jackpots produce a stream of massive advertised prizes and periodic spikes in ticket sales; for Californians who favor more frequent smaller wins and a lower price per ticket, SuperLotto Plus has a loyal following even though its jackpots are usually smaller and prize‑pool returns on many plays can be low by some calculations [7] [4]. Both games’ payouts and prize pools evolve with format changes, legislative rules (e.g., pari‑mutuel requirements in California), and consumer behavior, and available reporting does not provide a continuous historical time series of payout percentages to quantify long‑term trends precisely across decades [2] [4].