Million dollar earners in CA 2023
Executive summary
California’s count of people earning $1 million or more in a given year fluctuates by roughly 10,000 filers year‑to‑year, but migration explains only a tiny slice — about 50–120 people — of that change, meaning most gains and losses come from residents moving into or out of the millionaire bracket [1] [2]. Different measures matter: tax‑return based counts of $1M+ earners rose sharply after 2020 nationally and in California [3], while lottery prizes created about 180 new millionaires in California in 2023 alone [4].
1. Million‑dollar earners: volatility driven by incomes, not movers
Researchers analyzing California tax data found the annual number of million‑dollar earners swings by about 10,000 people, but net migration accounts for only a “teensy portion” — roughly 50 to 120 filers — indicating that the bulk of change is residents earning more or less, not rich people relocating in or out of the state [1] [2].
2. Tax records and market cycles inflated the post‑pandemic surge
National IRS‑based counts of tax filers with $1 million+ incomes jumped after 2020 — from about 608,540 in 2020 to 873,670 in 2021 nationally — and analysts attribute that rise to the stock market rebound and big increases in compensation in sectors like tech and finance; California was a major beneficiary of those trends [3].
3. Migration fears overstate the effect of tax changes
Prior studies comparing periods before and after California tax increases (including the 2004 and 2012 hikes) found little evidence that higher rates triggered mass departures of million‑dollar earners; in one analysis the exit rate of top earners actually declined after 2004, while nearby “almost‑top” earners left at the same rate, and each 1 percentage‑point tax rise corresponded to only about 40 fewer million‑dollar earners via net migration in one researcher’s estimate [1].
4. Not all new millionaires come from salaries — luck and pensions matter
The composition of new millionaires in any year is mixed. Lottery activity alone created 180 new millionaires in California in 2023, a record by the California Lottery, while public‑sector pension and investment professionals have pushed some state employees above the $1 million mark in recent years [4] [5].
5. Different ways to define “millionaire” produce different stories
Media and research use distinct definitions: some pieces track filers reporting $1M+ in adjusted gross income on tax returns (the basis for the IRS‑driven surge), others count individuals with $1M+ in net worth, and still others look at payroll data or local salary dashboards that show high concentrations of upper‑end pay in places like the Bay Area [3] [6]. These methodological differences change what “million‑dollar earner” means in a headline.
6. Local concentrations: Bay Area remains a high‑pay outlier
Payroll analyses and dashboards show the Bay Area has an unusually high concentration of very large paychecks: ADP data found more than 2% of Bay Area employees earned at least $500,000, with 0.54% earning $1 million or more — further evidence that geography and industry clusters matter in creating $1M+ paychecks [6].
7. Policy implications and political framing
Arguments for a wealth or higher‑income tax often claim it will drive wealthy filers away; the cited research counters that migration effects have been small historically and that taxable income among million‑dollar earners is more sensitive to market cycles and compensation growth than to short‑term moves [1] [2]. Still, some commentators and lawmakers frame recent tax changes as making California “more expensive for high earners,” reflecting political stakes around future proposals [7].
8. Caveats, blind spots and what the sources don’t say
Available sources do not mention a precise 2023 headcount of California tax filers reporting $1M+ for that year within this packet; they provide national IRS totals [3] and estimates of volatility and migration effects [1] [2] but not a single official California 2023 filers number. Also, long‑term behavioral changes from remote work and new wealth‑tax proposals are discussed as open questions rather than settled effects [2] [7].
Conclusion: California’s millionaire population is large and sensitive to markets and industry compensation cycles; documented migration effects have historically been minor, while lotteries, public pensions and sectoral pay spikes also create year‑to‑year variation [1] [3] [4] [5]. For a definitive 2023 filers count in California you would need the state or IRS release that specific year’s tax‑return tabulations — not included in the current sources (available sources do not mention a definitive California 2023 $1M+ filer total).