What were monthly CPI inflation rates during each presidential term from 2001 to 2025?
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Executive summary
Monthly CPI inflation (the 12‑month percent change reported each month) is available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and reproduced by data aggregators such as FRED, Trading Economics and specialist sites; official BLS releases show the CPI rose 3.0% year‑over‑year in September 2025 and monthly (seasonally adjusted) CPI changes of 0.3–0.4% in mid‑2025 (BLS news release) [1]. Public summaries comparing inflation across presidencies exist, but methodologies differ (average year‑over‑year, monthly averages, or single‑month peaks), so direct month‑by‑month attribution to a president requires using the underlying BLS monthly CPI series [2] [3].
1. What the raw data are and where to get them — the primary record
The authoritative monthly CPI series is produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI‑U), published in monthly news releases and downloadable series; economists and public data sites reproduce this series (BLS CPI homepage and release) [2] [1]. The St. Louis Fed’s FRED hosts the CPIAUCSL series that lets analysts compute year‑ago percent changes for any month — the standard way to get a month‑level inflation rate for any date between 2001 and 2025 [3].
2. What “monthly CPI inflation rate” typically means — be explicit on metric
Most public figures use the 12‑month percent change in the CPI released each month (i.e., September 2025’s “3.0%” compares Sept 2025 to Sept 2024), not the month‑over‑month percent change; BLS press summaries list both the monthly index move and the 12‑month change, and the 12‑month change is what is commonly quoted in political comparisons (BLS release) [1].
3. Why tying each month to a presidential term requires a consistent rule
To produce “monthly CPI inflation rates during each presidential term” you must decide: (a) assign each calendar month to the sitting president on that month; (b) report the 12‑month CPI change shown in that month (the standard approach); and (c) be explicit about seasonally adjusted vs. not seasonally adjusted data. The underlying CPI series needed for that calculation is available from BLS and FRED so the month‑by‑month construction is verifiable [2] [3].
4. Existing cross‑president summaries are informative but methodologically varied
Analysts and outlets report inflation by president in different ways: Investopedia publishes average year‑over‑year inflation by president (an annual‑average approach) [4]; MeasuringWorth provides presidential‑term annualized metrics [5]. White House communications and partisan summaries often mix apples and oranges — for instance, contrasting a single month peak under one president to an average under another — which CNN and fact‑checkers have flagged as misleading [6] [7]. Use the raw BLS monthly series to avoid those traps [1].
5. Short guide to building the series yourself (recommended, transparent method)
Download the CPIAUCSL monthly index from FRED or the BLS monthly CPI tables, compute the year‑ago percent change for each month, and label each month by the president in office on that date (FRED CPI series and BLS documentation) [3] [2]. That produces a clear month‑by‑month table for 2001–2025 that is reproducible and avoids mixing metrics from different sources [3].
6. Known facts for late 2024–2025 that affect comparisons
By September 2025, headline CPI year‑over‑year was 3.0% and monthly CPI gains in mid‑2025 were about 0.3–0.4% (BLS summary; Trading Economics reporting) [1] [8]. Analysts and the Treasury reported that inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% target through third quarter 2025, and average CPI growth in early‑to‑mid 2025 was modestly above 2% annualized for some subperiods (Treasury statement; Trading Economics) [9] [8].
7. Political context and interpretation — competing narratives
The White House and the Trump administration both published statements framing inflation trends to their advantage; the White House emphasized declines from earlier peaks while the Trump team highlighted lower averages during his second‑term months — both tactics can be accurate on selected metrics but misleading if the metric selection is hidden [6] [10]. Independent fact‑checkers note that conclusions about “inflation easing” depend on the chosen index (headline vs. core) and the averaging window [11].
8. Limitations and what the sources do not provide here
Available sources list where to retrieve monthly CPI data and document headline numbers through September 2025, but the search results provided do not themselves supply a ready month‑by‑month table for every month from 2001–2025; to produce that exact table you must extract the CPI series from BLS/FRED and compute the 12‑month changes (not found in current reporting; see [2] and [12]0). Also, the political materials cited sometimes omit methodological details [7].
If you want, I will: (a) pull the CPIAUCSL monthly series from FRED [3] and compute the 12‑month percent change for every month from Jan 2001 through Sep 2025 and assign months to presidents, or (b) give an annotated spreadsheet template and exact formulas so you can reproduce the table yourself using BLS/FRED data [2] [3]. Which do you prefer?