How did average US gasoline prices change month-by-month during the Biden presidency compared to the Trump presidency?
Executive summary
Average U.S. gasoline prices were materially lower across Donald Trump’s 2017–2020 term (term average about $2.46/gal) than across Joe Biden’s time in office through the sources’ coverage (Biden-era average roughly $3.53–$3.60/gal) [1][2]. Month-by-month patterns reflect big external shocks — the COVID collapse in 2020 and the post‑pandemic/Ukraine price spike in 2021–2022 — that explain most variation, not direct presidential control [3][2].
1. Presidents vs. markets: why month-to-month comparisons mislead
Gasoline prices are set by global crude markets, OPEC+ decisions and short‑term demand shocks; journalists and analysts in the provided sources stress that market forces, not presidential fiat, explain most month‑by‑month movements [3]. Forbes and Yahoo Finance note that OPEC+ production cuts and the global recovery from COVID drove prices higher after 2020, while the pandemic itself drove prices sharply lower in Trump’s final months [2][3].
2. The headline numbers: averages that reporters cite
Federal and mainstream fact‑checkers cited here give clear headline contrasts: the average price over Trump’s four‑year term was about $2.46 per gallon, while the average during Biden’s tenure (as counted in multiple reports) was in the $3.53–$3.60 range — a full dollar plus higher on average [1][2]. Those term averages are unadjusted for inflation and mask large month‑by‑month swings [1][2].
3. The big month-to-month swings you should know
Two large events dominate the month‑by‑month story in these sources. First, COVID‑19 collapsed demand in early 2020 and sent pump prices plunging — a key reason Trump’s final months show unusually low prices [2][3]. Second, the post‑pandemic demand rebound and the 2022 shock after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed U.S. pump prices above $4/gal that year, driving Biden’s average up [2][4].
4. Political claims vs. public data: competing narratives
Political teams have offered competing interpretations. Trump and his White House pushed a narrative of falling prices in 2025 and credited policy moves for recent drops; critics and independent outlets point out the differences are small or reflect global price changes, not simple cause‑and‑effect from the White House [5][6][4]. Fact‑checking outlets caution that cherry‑picked monthly snapshots (e.g., citing very low prices in particular states or days) can mislead when compared to term averages [7][1].
5. What month‑by‑month comparison actually shows (based on available reporting)
Available sources do not supply a full month‑by‑month table in this packet, but they consistently report the pattern: prices fell sharply in early 2020 (COVID), then rose through 2021–2022 (post‑COVID recovery and geopolitical shocks), producing a higher multi‑year average under Biden; Trump’s earlier years showed generally lower, more stable prices until the pandemic collapse [2][3][1]. For precise monthly series you would need the underlying EIA or AAA monthly data — not included in the current set (available sources do not mention a full month‑by‑month dataset here).
6. How pundits and politicians weaponize snapshots
Multiple sources document that politicians pick start and end points to make politically useful comparisons: highlighting a low daily average or a month that favors their narrative while ignoring larger trends [4][5][1]. FactCheck and PolitiFact warn that such selections produce misleading impressions about a president’s influence on pump prices [7][1].
7. What this means for readers judging responsibility
The reporting assembled here shows higher average prices during Biden’s years and lower averages during Trump’s term, but also emphasizes that global supply/demand and discrete shocks drove most variation [1][3]. If you want to evaluate presidential impact rigorously, consult monthly EIA or AAA series and control for global crude prices and demand shocks — those data sources are not provided in these search results (available sources do not mention those raw monthly series in full).
8. Bottom line and further reading
Bottom line: term‑averages cited in fact‑checks and business analysis show gasoline was substantially cheaper on average during Trump’s four‑year term (~$2.46/gal) than during Biden’s tenure (~$3.53–$3.60/gal), but month‑to‑month movement is driven mainly by market events such as the COVID demand collapse and the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine shock [1][2][3]. For a definitive month‑by‑month table, consult the EIA monthly pump price series or AAA historical averages — those data are not included among the sources supplied here (available sources do not mention a complete month‑by‑month table).