National debt going down

1. The headline: debt is increasing, not decreasing

Official and near‑official trackers repeatedly record an increase: the Joint Economic Committee’s monthly update lists gross national debt at $38.09 trillion on November 5–6, 2025 and a +$2.18 trillion change over the prior year ^{[1] [2]}. Independent debt clocks and consolidated Treasury figures report similar $37.9–$38.1 trillion levels in mid‑November 2025 ^{[5] [1]}.

2. Why the “going down” idea conflicts with current data

Claims that the national debt is falling are not reflected in the documents provided: fiscal year accounting and continuous Treasury totals show large deficits in FY2025 (about $1.7–$1.8 trillion) that add to the stock of debt rather than reduce it ^{[3] [4]}. The JEC’s monthly accounting shows year‑over‑year increases and per‑household debt measures rising as well, undermining a narrative of declining national debt ^{[1] [2]}.

3. The drivers: big deficits, higher interest costs, and policy choices

Sources attribute most of the increase to large annual deficits and growing interest payments. Treasury and watchdog estimates record a roughly $1.8 trillion FY2025 deficit and show interest on the debt has become one of the fastest‑growing budget items—exceeding defense in net interest terms—pushing gross debt higher ^{[4] [6]}. Policy changes—in particular tax and spending legislation cited in budget analyses—are projected to add trillions to debt over coming years ^{[7] [4]}.

4. Debt relative to the economy: nearly 100% of GDP

Analysts are focused not just on the dollar total but on debt as a share of GDP. The CRFB summary of CBO estimates notes debt held by the public reached about 99.8% of GDP in FY2025 and that deficits over the last 12 months totaled roughly $1.74 trillion—figures that indicate debt burdens are growing relative to economic output, not shrinking ^[3].

5. Short‑term quirks and why some months can look misleading

Monthly surpluses or shifts in timing (for example Treasury reporting quirks or a September surplus due to payment timing) can create the impression of temporary improvement; Treasury and budget analysts caution these are often accounting effects and not structural declines ^[4]. But the overall trend in the sources is upward once timing shifts are adjusted ^{[4] [1]}.

6. What proponents of “debt easing” scenarios say and their tensions

Some commentators and institutions argue the debt burden can be managed by higher growth, tolerating modestly higher inflation, or raising revenues—approaches discussed in economic commentary that caution about tradeoffs between growth, inflation, and Fed independence ^[8]. The Fortune analysis notes investors still fund U.S. borrowing comfortably but flags risks if inflation tolerance or Fed policy shifts are used to erode real debt burdens ^[8].

7. Political context and competing agendas shaping the narrative

Reports come with different emphases: watchdog groups stress the urgency of reducing deficits and criticize recent policy choices that expand long‑term debt ^{[4] [7]}, while some political actors highlight temporary revenue boosts (tariffs) or one‑time accounting effects to argue deficits have edged lower in specific months ^[6]. Each framing serves different policy goals—either to press for immediate fiscal restraint or to defend recent legislative choices.

8. Bottom line and reporting limits

Available sources do not support the claim that the U.S. national debt is currently going down; instead, Treasury‑aligned trackers and fiscal analysts record a rising gross debt around $38.09 trillion and large FY2025 deficits of about $1.7–$1.8 trillion ^{[1] [2] [3] [4]}. Limitations: these sources focus on aggregate federal debt and year‑end accounting; they do not provide projections beyond the near term here and do not discuss private measures or state debts (not found in current reporting).