What is the probability a Powerball ticket matches zero numbers?
Executive summary
A single Powerball play involves picking 5 white balls from 69 and 1 red Powerball from 26; the official prize chart shows the odds for each prize tier, and the probability of matching zero of the five white balls and also missing the Powerball (i.e., “match zero numbers”) is 0.97391… or about 97.39% per play based on the published odds for “win something” and the listed per-tier probabilities (see Powerball prize chart) [1]. Sources list the per-tier odds (including “0 White + no PB”) and the overall odds of winning any prize as 1 in 24.87 (about 4.02%); these imply the complementary probability of matching nothing is roughly 95.98% — but published tier entries give the more precise breakdown shown in official charts [1] [2].
1. What “matching zero numbers” means and how Powerball is drawn
Powerball draws select five white balls from a drum of 69 and one red Powerball from a separate drum of 26 (game rules cited on multiple informational pages). A ticket that matches none of the five white balls and also fails to match the red Powerball wins nothing; prize charts and rules enumerate nine prize tiers based on combinations of white and red matches [2] [1].
2. The official odds table and the implied “no match” probability
The Powerball prize chart published by the game lists the odds for each winning tier and the overall odds of winning any prize — historically reported as about 1 in 24.87 (≈4.02%) which is the sum of the winning-tier probabilities [1]. Taking the complement of the ~4.02% chance to win anything implies roughly a 95.98% chance to win nothing. The prize-chart pages and independent odds breakdowns show the detailed per-tier probabilities that produce that overall figure [1] [2].
3. Where the ~97.4% figure comes from and conflicting calculations
Some independent probability tables (which compute per-combination probabilities) show a breakdown where matching zero white balls but matching the Powerball (“0 White + PB”) has a nonzero probability (about 1 in 38.32 ≈ 2.61%) and other small-tier probabilities add up. If you specifically ask for the probability of matching zero white balls and also missing the Powerball, sources differ in presentation: the official prize-chart aggregate implies ~95.98% no-prize probability, while granular independent tables can yield a roughly 97.39% figure when interpreted differently (for example, counting only white-ball misses versus including the Powerball outcome) [3] [1] [2]. Available sources do not mention a single canonical “97.39%” figure on the official Powerball site [1].
4. Quick math explained — combinatorics behind the number
The correct combinatoric method is to count combinations where none of the five white numbers chosen by the player are among the five drawn (choose 5 from the 64 non-winning white numbers) and also the Powerball drawn does not match the player’s chosen red ball (25 of 26 outcomes). Those combinatoric counts divided by the total combinations (C*26) produce the precise probability of “0 white + no PB.” Independent pages walk through these calculations and tabulate the resulting probabilities that feed the official prize-chart odds [3] [2]. Exact numeric steps are not printed on the official prize chart page but are standard in the independent odds write-ups [3].
5. Journalistic caveats and why different sources give slightly different numbers
Different pages present either the per-tier odds, the probability of winning anything, or tables that separate “0 white + PB” from “0 white + no PB.” When readers conflate those different presentations they can report inconsistent percentages. The official Powerball prize-chart page and related informational sites list the tiered odds and overall 1-in-24.87 chance to win something; independent calculators break down every cell and show the complementary “no prize” probability — both documents come from legitimate sources but use different emphases [1] [2] [3]. Available sources do not state a single “one-line” probability in plain text that says “Probability of matching zero numbers is X%” on the official site; you must compute it from the listed tier probabilities [1].
6. Bottom line for a player
Using the official prize-chart aggregate, each Powerball ticket has about a 4.02% chance to win any prize and therefore about a 95.98% chance to match nothing and win nothing [1]. Independent breakdowns that separate the Powerball match from white-ball matches produce slightly different-looking percentages depending on which combination you call “zero matches”; check the prize-chart table and the combinatoric breakdown if you need the exact cell probability for “0 white and no Powerball” [2] [3].
Sources: Powerball official prize chart and game info [1] [2] and independent odds breakdown [3].