Projected 2026 cola for federal employees

1. How the 2026 COLA was decided — the CPI‑W and timing

The 2026 federal retiree COLA is set by a statutory formula that compares the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI‑W) for the third quarter of the current year to the third quarter of the prior year; the Social Security Administration (SSA) then announces the final percentage in October and payments begin in January ^{[1] [8]}. Multiple outlets noted that the September 2025 CPI‑W figure (318.139) relative to December 2024 produced projections that anchored the final calculation ^{[9] [1]}.

2. What was announced and who gets what

Reporting converges on a 2.8% COLA for 2026 that applies to Social Security and CSRS annuities, while FERS retirees receive a smaller, statutory “prorated” amount — commonly 2.0% when the full COLA falls between 2% and 3% ^{[1] [2] [3]}. News outlets explained that the FERS “diet” COLA rule reduces the effective increase for many FERS annuitants even when Social Security and CSRS get the full percentage ^{[2] [10]}.

3. Earlier projections and why they varied

Throughout 2025 independent forecasters and advocacy groups issued differing estimates: the Senior Citizens League and several analysts issued monthly forecasts ranging roughly 2.3%–2.6%, while other commentators predicted around 2.8% pending September inflation readings ^{[6] [4] [5] [11]}. Those variations reflect the month‑to‑month sensitivity of the COLA formula to CPI figures and different forecasting models, not disagreement about the statutory method itself ^{[7] [12]}.

4. The practical impact on retirees and current employees

Media calculations translated the 2.8% headline into average dollar changes — SSA said the bump was roughly $56 per month on average for beneficiaries, raising average monthly Social Security payments into the low $2,000s in 2026, while married couples saw a larger average increase ^{[10] [1]}. Several unions and advocacy groups warned that FERS annuitants would feel the sting of a lower 2.0% increase compared with CSRS and Social Security recipients ^{[10] [2]}.

5. Sources of disagreement and potential agendas

Forecasting groups such as The Senior Citizens League and trade publications like FedSmith and Federal Pension Advisors produce projections with differing incentives: advocacy groups model outcomes to alert members and influence policy conversations, while industry outlets sometimes promote advisory services; both tend to highlight the downside risk for FERS retirees ^{[6] [4] [11]}. Labor unions and retiree associations framed the final result as inadequate relative to recent increases in living costs and federal health‑insurance premium changes, reflecting an implicit agenda to press for benefit adjustments ^{[10] [2]}.

6. What remains uncertain or not covered in reporting

Available sources do not mention any authoritative change in law or pending congressional fix to the FERS COLA formula for 2026; they also do not provide individualized impact estimates for every income cohort beyond averages (not found in current reporting). The precise timing of when the annuity payment increase posts to each retiree’s account is explained in broad terms but can vary by agency payroll cycles ^[13].

7. Bottom line for federal employees planning for 2026

Expect the official 2026 COLA announced in mid‑October to match the reports: roughly 2.8% for CSRS and Social Security and an effective 2.0% for most FERS annuitants under the statutory proration rules; earlier mid‑year projections that ranged from about 2.3%–2.6% simply reflected the sensitivity of the formula to later CPI data ^{[1] [2] [6]}. Monitor SSA and OPM notices for final implementation details and agency‑specific timing of when increased annuity checks will arrive ^{[1] [13]}.