Fact check: Has there been a real growth in wages

1. Summary of the results

The analyses provide strong evidence supporting real wage growth in the United States. Multiple official sources confirm this trend:

• Real average hourly earnings increased by 1.2% and real average weekly earnings grew by 1.4% from July 2024 to July 2025 ^[1]
• Nominal wages rose 4.2% while inflation stood at only 2.7% during the same period, creating positive real wage growth ^[2]
• The national average wage index for 2023 was 4.43% higher than 2022 ^[3]
• Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 3.6% for the 12-month period ending June 2025 ^[4]

These data points consistently demonstrate that wages have been outpacing inflation, resulting in genuine purchasing power gains for American workers.

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original question lacks important historical context and nuanced perspectives that complicate the wage growth narrative:

• While recent wage growth is positive, the past 16 months of real wage growth haven't been enough to offset the 25 months where prices were rising disproportionately faster than Americans' paychecks ^[5]
• There are concerning labor market dynamics, with annual wage growth for "job stayers" eclipsing that of "job switchers" for six consecutive months - a pattern last seen around the Great Recession ^[6]
• Different measurement methodologies can lead to conflicting conclusions about wage growth, as various pay measures, inflation measures, and reference periods produce different results ^[7]

Beneficiaries of emphasizing positive wage growth include incumbent political leaders, Federal Reserve officials defending monetary policy, and employers who benefit from worker satisfaction. Conversely, opposition politicians, labor unions seeking higher wages, and economic pessimists benefit from highlighting the limitations of recent gains.

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question "has there been a real growth in wages" appears neutral but lacks temporal specificity, which could lead to misleading interpretations:

• The question doesn't specify a time frame, allowing for cherry-picking favorable periods while ignoring longer-term struggles
• It oversimplifies a complex economic phenomenon that varies significantly based on measurement methodology and reference periods ^[7]
• The framing ignores the broader context of inflation's impact over multiple years, potentially creating a false impression of sustained prosperity when workers may still be recovering from previous purchasing power losses ^[5]

The question's simplicity could inadvertently promote incomplete understanding of wage dynamics, benefiting those who prefer surface-level economic discussions over comprehensive analysis.