Fact check: Is The Russian Economy Facing a Tidal Wave of Bankruptcies?

1. Summary of the results

Multiple credible sources strongly indicate that Russia is indeed facing a severe risk of widespread corporate bankruptcies. The evidence is substantial:

• 20% of manufacturing enterprises must use two-thirds of their pre-tax profits just to service debt ^{[1] [1] [1]}
• Russia's Central Bank has set interest rates at a record high of 21% ^{[1] [2]}
• Corporate bankruptcies have already increased by 20% and are expected to accelerate further ^[3]
• New loans have decreased by up to 50% in late 2024 ^[1]
• The share of enterprises with risky debt levels doubled in 2024 ^[4]

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original question lacks several crucial contextual elements:

• Sector-specific vulnerability: Particularly vulnerable sectors include transport engineering, shopping malls, road carriers, airlines, and IT industries ^[5]
• Floating rate exposure: The percentage of floating-rate loans has dramatically increased from 20% to 53% of corporate borrowing, creating additional risk ^[3]
• Cash flow disruption: Companies are choosing to deposit cash at high-interest banks rather than pay suppliers, creating a chain reaction of financial strain ^[4]
• Government limitations: The Russian state's inability to afford large bailouts significantly increases the risk of bankruptcies ^[2]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question oversimplifies a complex economic situation:

• While the question suggests a sudden "tidal wave," the situation has been building gradually, with the share of risky enterprises doubling over 2024 ^[4]
• Multiple expert sources confirm the risk:

The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) warns of a "large-scale jump in corporate bankruptcies" ^[1]

Anders Åslund warns that "major bankruptcies are looming" ^[2]

Vasily Astrov confirms a "realistic danger" of significant bankruptcy increases ^[1]

Rostec's CEO warns the current lending environment could drive most businesses to bankruptcy ^[3]

The severity of the situation appears to be acknowledged by both independent experts and government-linked research centers, suggesting broad consensus on the risk level.