Fact check: How has the Russian ruble performed against the US dollar since the start of the war?

1. Summary of the results

The Russian ruble has shown a mixed performance against the US dollar since the start of the war, with both gains and losses reported by various sources ^[1]. According to some analyses, the ruble has strengthened significantly, with a 45% rise against the US dollar this year, driven by tight monetary policy and optimism after US-Russia talks ^[2]. Other sources report that the ruble has surged 38% versus the dollar on the over-the-counter market since the beginning of this year, outpacing gold and buoyed by record-high local interest rates ^[3]. However, some analyses also note that the ruble has weakened 1.52% over the past month, despite being up 7.39% over the last 12 months ^[1]. The ruble's strength is proving to be a double-edged sword for the Russian economy, which is facing challenges like declining oil prices and stiff sanctions ^[2].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Some sources highlight the impact of capital controls, policy tightening, and weakness in the dollar on the ruble's performance, but do not provide a detailed analysis of the war's effects on the currency ^[4]. Others discuss the sanctions imposed on Russia and their impact on the economy, but do not directly address the ruble's performance against the US dollar ^{[5] [6]}. Additionally, some analyses focus on the Russian government's efforts to stimulate fiscal spending and keep capital from exiting the country, but do not provide a direct comparison of the ruble's performance against the US dollar since the start of the war ^[7]. It is essential to consider these alternative viewpoints to gain a comprehensive understanding of the ruble's performance, as different sources may have different perspectives on the same issue ^{[1] [5]}.

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original statement may be misleading or incomplete, as it does not provide a clear picture of the ruble's performance against the US dollar since the start of the war. Some sources may have a pro-Russian bias, highlighting the ruble's strengths and downplaying its weaknesses ^[2], while others may have an anti-Russian bias, emphasizing the impact of sanctions on the economy and the ruble's vulnerabilities ^{[5] [6]}. It is crucial to consider multiple sources and evaluate the credibility of each analysis to form a well-rounded understanding of the issue ^{[1] [5]}. By examining the various perspectives and potential biases, it becomes clear that the Russian ruble's performance against the US dollar is a complex issue, influenced by a range of factors, including monetary policy, sanctions, and global economic trends ^{[1] [5]}.