Factually. (2025, September). Fact check: Inflation remains at 3% despite Trump’s claims. Factually.co.

1. Official data: CPI at 3.0% in September, monthly gain 0.3%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September 2025 CPI news release reports the headline CPI rose 0.3% for the month and the 12‑month change was 3.0% (seasonally adjusted monthly increase noted in the release) ^[1]. Several data aggregators and economic trackers—Trading Economics and the US Inflation Calculator—also report the 3.0% year‑over‑year CPI for September 2025 ^{[2] [4]}.

2. Fed’s preferred metric: PCE near 2.8–2.9% for September

The delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September 2025 — which the Federal Reserve uses as its primary inflation tool — recorded a core annual rate around 2.8% (core PCE 2.8% and core PCE expected 2.9% in reporting) and a monthly rise of 0.2% for core PCE ^[3]. News coverage frames PCE as “slightly stale” because the September PCE release was delayed into December, but it still showed inflation near the Fed’s 2% target band for core measures ^[3].

3. What the breakdowns show: energy, shelter and services matter

Category detail in reporting shows energy was a key driver to the September CPI pickup (energy up 2.8% year‑over‑year in one account) with gasoline and fuel oil movements influencing the monthly increase, while shelter inflation remained a persistent element (rent and owners’ equivalent rent running above the Fed’s target) ^{[2] [5]}. Visualizations and the Treasury statement emphasize food and housing services as major contributors to price gains over the year through September ^{[6] [5]}.

4. Why statistics can look different from political claims

Political statements often cite partial measures (monthly vs annual, CPI vs PCE, headline vs core), or use selective time windows. The available sources do not reproduce the Trump statement you mentioned, so whether his remark matches the 3.0% CPI or a different series (e.g., core PCE, monthly change, or a different month) is not documented in current reporting (not found in current reporting). Official releases make clear differences exist between CPI and PCE and between headline and core series ^{[1] [3]}.

5. Timeliness and revision risks: delayed releases in 2025

Several sources flag timing issues in late 2025: the BLS had a delayed/canceled October release because of a government shutdown and some PCE data were described as “slightly stale” when reported in December, which introduces lags and possible revisions into the public picture of inflation ^{[4] [3]}. The Cleveland Fed and regional Fed research emphasize “nowcasts” and revisions that can change short‑term readings ^[7].

6. Multiple perspectives: markets, Fed and policymakers disagree on policy signal

Market and Fed commentary cited in the PCE coverage portrays two competing camps within FOMC: some officials see room for rate cuts given stable PCE readings, while others point to persistent inflationary risks, especially in services and shelter ^[3]. Economic calendars and market commentary view the September readings as reinforcing a “slow‑grind disinflation” narrative but not an all‑clear for quick policy easing ^[8].

7. Bottom line for fact‑checking the claim

Available, contemporaneous data show headline CPI was 3.0% year‑over‑year in September 2025 and core PCE was about 2.8–2.9% for the same month — both consistent with the broad assertion that inflation was roughly 3% in that period ^{[1] [3] [2]}. The sources do not include the specific Trump quote you referenced, so they do not document whether his statement matched or misrepresented those official series or dates (not found in current reporting).