How much of Canadian federal debt is held by non‑resident central banks versus private foreign investors in 2025?
Executive summary
As of March 31, 2025 the federal accumulated deficit (federal debt) stood at $1,266.5 billion, and contemporary reporting points to large non‑resident participation in Government of Canada marketable securities—Statistics Canada and independent analysts report international portfolio investors holding roughly $527 billion of federal securities in early 2025—yet official public data do not publish a clean, up‑to‑date split between holdings by foreign central banks and holdings by private foreign investors for 2025 [1] [2] [3]. Analysts and market reports suggest that most of the non‑resident exposure is held by private international portfolio investors rather than foreign central banks, but that conclusion is inferential because the Bank of Canada and Finance Canada aggregate “non‑resident” categories in ways that obscure an exact central‑bank vs private‑investor breakdown in 2025 [4] [5].
1. How big is the pot of federal debt and how much do foreigners hold?
The Government of Canada’s Annual Financial Report shows federal debt (accumulated deficit) of $1,266.5 billion at March 31, 2025, which is the baseline for ownership shares [1]; public debt management publications and Statistics Canada indicate non‑resident investors have accounted for roughly the high‑20s percent of outstanding Government of Canada marketable securities in recent years—28–29% in 2023–24 and 2022–23 respectively—while some market reports and analysts put non‑resident holdings higher in early 2025, citing $527 billion of federal securities held by international portfolio investors as of February 2025 [5] [3] [2].
2. The $527 billion headline and what it means
The widely cited $527 billion figure for international portfolio investors owning Government of Canada securities (reported in May 2025) comes from Statistics Canada data highlighted by independent analysts and shows substantial foreign private investor participation in federal bond markets; when compared to the $1,266.5 billion federal debt figure, that headline number implies a very large foreign private investor stake, but differences in definitional scope (marketable federal securities vs total accumulated deficit) and timing mean simple percentage arithmetic can mislead unless one matches series exactly [2] [1].
3. Where the central banks sit in the data — visible but not isolated
Bank of Canada and Finance Canada reporting collect central bank holdings inside broader investor categories and the public “distribution of holdings” datasets aggregate other central banks alongside chartered banks, dealers and non‑resident holders rather than publishing an isolated, current sub‑total of foreign central bank holdings of federal securities for 2025; the Bank of Canada’s holdings as a domestic central bank are reported separately, but non‑resident central banks are folded into the general non‑resident category, making an exact split by “other central banks” versus “private foreign investors” unavailable in the public tables cited [4] [5].
4. Market behaviour and signals: private investors driving recent flows
Market analysis from National Bank and trade reporting shows that in 2024–25 foreign investors absorbed large amounts of new federal issuance—National Bank estimated non‑residents bought about 60% of the fiscal year’s newly issued federal debt (roughly $91 billion)—and trading volumes indicate private non‑resident activity dominates market turnover, implying private investors (not central banks) were the marginal and active buyers in 2024–25; yet central banks can and do move sovereign exposures in reserve operations, so market‑flow evidence does not fully resolve stock‑level owner identities [6] [7].
5. Bottom line and reporting limits
The best available public figures show substantial non‑resident ownership of federal securities—roughly late‑2023/early‑2024 estimates in the high‑20s percent and a February 2025 snapshot of $527 billion held by international portfolio investors—but none of the sources provided give a contemporaneous, line‑by‑line 2025 split that isolates “non‑resident central banks” versus “private foreign investors” for Government of Canada securities; official Bank of Canada and Finance Canada publications aggregate non‑resident categories in ways that prevent producing the precise 2025 split requested from the supplied reporting [3] [5] [4] [2].