What share of GDP were deficits under Trump and Biden versus past postwar presidents?
Executive summary
Across the last decade deficits rose sharply during the COVID shock and then fluctuated with recovery and policy choices: under President Trump the federal deficit and debt measures jumped sharply—debt held by the public rose by roughly 23 percentage points of GDP during his term—while under President Biden deficits as a share of GDP have been lower than the pandemic peak and relatively flatter, though still above pre‑COVID levels [1] [2]. Comparing to past postwar presidents shows the COVID years produced the largest peacetime spikes in deficits relative to GDP, so both administrations are being measured against an unusually high baseline [2] [3].
1. Trump’s record in GDP terms: a sharp rise driven by tax cuts and a pandemic
Measured on debt held by the public as a share of GDP, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates growth of roughly 23 percentage points during President Trump’s term, a rise amplified by the timing of recession, large 2017 tax cuts and extraordinary 2020 pandemic spending; nominal deficits also surged from about $984 billion in 2019 to over $1 trillion in 2020 as Congress enacted emergency stimulus [1] [4]. Other summaries note that the federal budget deficit rose from about 3.1 percent of GDP at end‑2016 to roughly 4.6 percent by end‑2019, and then exploded with the pandemic year, making Trump’s term unique because it spans both pre‑pandemic tax cuts and the COVID shock [3] [2].
2. Biden’s pattern: retreat from emergency spending but still above pre‑COVID norms
Under President Biden, CRFB and reporting show deficits as a share of GDP have been relatively flat after the COVID shock when measured in debt‑to‑GDP terms, and that much of the early decline in the deficit traced to the winding down of pandemic emergency programs rather than new structural savings [1] [5]. Pew and PolitiFact reporting confirm that while deficits fell from the pandemic high, debt has continued to climb and deficits in 2022–2023 remained higher than pre‑pandemic levels and in some years higher than Trump’s first three years, reflecting both enacted Biden administration legislation and lingering economic effects from COVID [2] [5].
3. How this compares with past postwar presidents
Postwar history shows large deficit spikes in wartime and major recessions; World War II and the COVID crisis are the clearest examples of deficits reaching historic GDP shares, with 2020 hitting an all‑time modern high of about 133 percent of GDP for federal debt in Q2 2020 (Pew) and the immediate pandemic deficits dwarfing most peacetime presidencies [2]. By contrast, many postwar presidents presided over much smaller deficit‑to‑GDP ratios in normal times—Reagan and the early 1980s, and the 2008 crisis under George W. Bush/Obama, were notable increases, but the pandemic remains the singular outlier that makes direct one‑to‑one comparisons with typical postwar presidencies misleading without context [2].
4. Where analysts disagree and why methodology matters
Estimates diverge because analysts measure different things—gross debt versus debt held by the public, cumulative dollar increases versus percentage‑of‑GDP changes, or ten‑year projected impacts of legislation—and because timing (e.g., a large Treasury cash balance left at transition) can distort short‑term comparisons; CRFB stresses the 23‑point rise in debt‑to‑GDP under Trump but also notes much of the Biden period shows flatter movement, while partisan actors such as the House Budget Committee dispute CRFB’s framing and calculate larger Biden‑era impacts using alternate scorings of legislation and executive actions [1] [6] [7]. In short, whether Trump or Biden “worse” depends on the metric and time window chosen.
5. Bottom line for readers seeking a clear metric
If the question is “what share of GDP were deficits,” the best available nonpartisan snapshots show Trump’s tenure saw a large increase in debt held by the public—roughly a 23 percentage‑point rise in the debt‑to‑GDP ratio—driven by 2017 tax changes and the pandemic, while Biden’s early years have seen deficits decline from the pandemic peak and the debt‑to‑GDP path remain flatter though still elevated above pre‑COVID norms; historical comparisons must account for the extraordinary COVID spike that affects all recent presidents’ numbers [1] [2] [5].