How have SNAP costs changed over the past decade and what drives year-to-year fluctuations?
Executive summary
SNAP spending and per-person benefits rose sharply during and after the pandemic but have moderated since; average monthly benefit was about $187–$188 per person in FY2025 while roughly 42–42.4 million people received benefits in early‑to‑mid‑2025 (figures vary by source) [1] [2]. Year‑to‑year changes in SNAP costs are driven primarily by three measurable factors: participation (number of people/households), the annually reset maximum allotments tied to the Thrifty Food Plan and COLA based on the Consumer Price Index for Food at Home, and legislative or emergency policy changes that temporarily boost or constrain benefits [3] [4] [5].
1. How total SNAP costs have trended over the last decade — participation + per‑person math
Total program outlays are the product of how many people receive benefits and how much each receives: USDA data show SNAP participation climbed during the pandemic and stayed elevated into the mid‑2020s, with roughly 41–42.4 million people participating in 2024–2025 and average benefits around $187–$188 per person per month in fiscal 2025 [1] [2]. FNS publishes multi‑decade “Participation and Costs, 1969–2024” tables that record both aggregate benefits and average monthly benefits, enabling year‑by‑year comparisons [3]. These two moving parts explain most long‑run change: when participation jumps (recession, pandemic, policy change), aggregate spending rises even if per‑person benefits are steady; when per‑person benefits are increased (TFP update/COLA), spending rises even if caseloads are stable [3] [4].
2. The single biggest driver of benefit size: the Thrifty Food Plan and the annual COLA
Maximum SNAP allotments are set annually based on USDA’s cost estimate of the Thrifty Food Plan (TFP), and USDA applies a cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) tied to food‑at‑home inflation to update those maximums each fiscal year [4] [5]. The COLA uses the Consumer Price Index for Food at Home so grocery price swings directly feed into benefit ceilings; Newsweek and USDA materials describe those annual increases and the mechanics behind the COLA [5] [6]. States and households then get benefits that reflect the TFP‑based maximums and household net income; a household with zero net income receives the maximum allotment for its size [1].
3. Participation swings: recession, pandemic, and policy
Participation responds quickly to economic conditions and program rules. The COVID recession caused a large enrollment surge and emergency increases in benefits; high caseloads persisted into subsequent years and remain a key reason federal outlays stayed elevated through 2024–2025 [3] [1]. Economic improvement drives enrollments down; conversely, policy changes (expanded eligibility, relaxed work rules, emergency allotments) can increase caseloads even without a recession [1].
4. Short‑term and unusual drivers: emergency boosts, contingency reserves, and appropriations
Congressional or administrative emergency actions can cause big, temporary cost swings. During the pandemic, emergency allotments and one‑time boosts raised per‑household benefits; later expirations caused sharp year‑to‑year declines. Federal budgeting mechanics also matter: appropriations, contingency reserves, and stopgap funding decisions have altered actual cash flows and created headline volatility in payments during events like the 2025 funding disruptions [7] [8]. The Congressional Budget Office and CBPP analyze how appropriations and contingency reserves affect month‑to‑month funding availability [4] [7].
5. Geographic and household differences that shape averages
Average benefit figures mask variation: state averages differ substantially (for example, May 2025 per‑person averages ranged from about $158 in some states to $218 in New York), and Alaska/Hawaii use different scales because of higher local food costs [2] [6]. Household composition and net income determine actual benefit sizes: a household with no net income gets the maximum, while others receive reduced amounts based on the SNAP formula that assumes families spend 30% of net income on food [1].
6. Forecasting and policy debates that will drive year‑to‑year future swings
Analysts project future SNAP outlays by modeling caseloads and the TFP cost (CBO uses a proxy food inflator), so future year‑to‑year spending will track expected employment, inflation in grocery prices, and any new legislative changes such as tightened eligibility or work requirements recently enacted or debated [4] [9]. Advocacy and state officials warn that proposed federal cuts or cost‑sharing shifts would change both federal outlays and state budgets — a political choice that could reduce federal spending but increase hardship or state costs if implemented [10] [9].
Limitations and gaps: available sources provide national participation, average benefit amounts, mechanics (TFP/COLA), and policy context, but current reporting in this set does not provide a year‑by‑year table in narrative form here; see USDA FNS “Participation and Costs” data tables for precise annual dollar totals and month‑by‑month snapshots [3].