How do types of SNAP fraud (trafficking, eligibility errors, identity fraud) break down in 2023–2024 data?
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Executive summary
Federal data and watchdog reports show two distinct categories in 2023–24 SNAP problems: payment errors (eligibility and administrative mistakes) and fraud (trafficking, identity fraud and theft). USDA estimated an improper payment rate of 11.7% for FY2023 (~$10.5 billion) and USDA’s FNS reported a national payment error rate of 10.93% for FY2024—both measures are explicitly not direct measures of fraud [1] [2]. Separate counts of trafficked or stolen EBT transactions have surged in public reporting since mid‑2023, with USDA datasets showing hundreds of thousands of unauthorized transactions and more than $100 million in replaced stolen benefits through 2025 [3] [4].
1. Payment errors dwarf, but don’t equate to, program fraud
USDA’s improper‑payment estimates and state payment error rates measure incorrect payments — underpayments and overpayments — that arise from eligibility mistakes, reporting lapses and administrative process failures; they are not intended to equal fraud. For FY2023 USDA estimated improper payments at 11.7% (about $10.5 billion) of SNAP outlays, and FNS released a national payment error rate of 10.93% for FY2024 — figures that signal substantial accuracy problems in state determinations rather than direct proof of criminality [1] [2].
2. Trafficking is measured separately and historically small but meaningful
“Trafficking” — the illegal sale or exchange of SNAP benefits for cash or ineligible items — is estimated through retailer trafficking studies on roughly a three‑year cadence and is not part of the normal payment‑error rate. Older FNS analyses placed retailer trafficking rates around 1.5–1.6% in mid‑decade studies; trafficking is an important form of fraud but does not represent all fraud types and is captured by different measurement tools than the NPER/SPER error series [5] [6].
3. Electronic theft and identity‑related fraud have surged in recent public counts
Since mid‑2023 USDA began publishing transaction‑level data showing steep rises in unauthorized EBT transactions and reimbursements for stolen benefits. Reporting compiled by Newsweek and others documents dramatic jumps — for example, fraudulent SNAP transactions increased by 55% between late FY2024 and early FY2025 and nearly 700,000 thefts were recorded since mid‑2023, with more than $100 million in benefits later replaced [3]. Industry research identifies identity‑related fraud as a major contributor, present in roughly 31% of reported agency cases in a LexisNexis study [4].
4. State variation and operational causes matter
Payment error rates vary widely by state: in FY2024 twenty‑five states plus D.C. reported error rates of 10% or higher, and 44 states were required to submit corrective action plans under USDA guidance [2] [7]. The Congressional Research Service and GAO link part of the error rise after FY2021 to pandemic policy shifts, staff shortages, and the return to pre‑pandemic rules — structural factors that increase eligibility and reporting mistakes [5] [1].
5. Counting differences and policy framing drive disputes
Different actors use different metrics to make political cases. USDA and GAO focus on improper payment/error‑rate methodologies; FNS emphasizes payment‑accuracy progress in other eras and the need to protect benefits [1] [8]. Advocacy and policy pieces highlight trafficking and criminal cases to argue for stricter enforcement, while civil‑rights and anti‑poverty groups warn that criminalizing “errors” can disproportionately penalize clients who make honest mistakes [5] [9]. Sources explicitly warn trafficking is only part of the picture and that measurement methods shape the narrative [5] [10].
6. What the available sources do not say (and why it matters)
Available sources do not offer a single reconciled 2023–24 breakdown that apportions the USDA/GAO improper‑payment totals into percentages caused by trafficking, identity fraud, and eligibility errors. CRS and GAO note that trafficking is not included in the NPER/SPER totals and is estimated separately on a multi‑year schedule — so you cannot directly decompose the $10.5 billion improper‑payment estimate into trafficking vs. identity vs. eligibility using the present public reports [5] [1] [10].
7. Bottom line and reporting implications
Use two lenses when interpreting 2023–24 SNAP figures: payment‑accuracy/error rates capture administrative eligibility and benefit calculation problems and account for the bulk of USDA’s “improper payment” totals (about 11–12% in FY2023–24), and separate fraud measures — retailer trafficking surveys and transaction‑level theft/identity‑fraud reports — capture criminal activity and electronic thefts that have spiked in recent public data but are counted on different schedules and methods [1] [2] [3] [4]. Any policy or media claim that collapses these distinct measures into a single “fraud” number is omitting how the federal measurement system separates eligibility errors from trafficking and identity theft [5] [10].