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Fact check: Project premium increase — WV: 387 %, WY: 382 %, Alaska: 346 %, Tennessee: 320 %, Mississippi: 314 % true or fasle
Executive Summary
The claim that projected premium increases are WV: 387%, WY: 382%, Alaska: 346%, Tennessee: 320%, and Mississippi: 314% appears to originate from recent Senate statements citing a Kaiser Family Foundation report; those figures were publicly repeated by Senators in late September–early October 2025 but are not corroborated by the unrelated insurance projections published in April 2025. Multiple available snippets show the numbers circulating in political statements [1] [2] [3], while other sources on insurance projections and tax changes do not confirm those exact percentage figures [4] [5] [6].
1. Where the dramatic percentages first appeared and who amplified them
Senator statements in late September and early October 2025 explicitly listed 387% for West Virginia, 382% for Wyoming, 346% for Alaska, 320% for Tennessee, and 314% for Mississippi, attributing the projections to the Kaiser Family Foundation and warning of large premium spikes if a set of ACA tax credits were allowed to expire [1] [2] [3]. These public remarks are clearly documented on official channels and news transcripts. The numbers are real as political claims, and multiple senators repeated the same figures within days of one another, which indicates coordinated messaging based on a common report rather than an isolated error [1] [2].
2. What the April 2025 insurance projections actually reported
An April 2025 Insurify analysis projected a national average home insurance premium increase of about 8% in 2025, estimating an average annual cost of $3,520, and highlighted larger regional increases in disaster-prone states such as Louisiana and California, with 27% and 21% increases respectively [4] [5]. Those Insurify figures do not match the five triple‑digit increases cited in the Senate statements, and the April reports do not mention West Virginia, Wyoming, Alaska, Tennessee, or Mississippi in the dramatic percentages that circulated in October 2025. This demonstrates a disconnect between the April insurance coverage and the later political figures [4] [5].
3. Inconsistencies and missing corroboration across available sources
Aside from the Senate floor and social media posts, the dataset provided lacks an independent, primary KFF or insurer data source that reproduces the exact 387%, 382%, 346%, 320%, 314% numbers for those states. The April insurance pieces and several unrelated local reports do not corroborate those magnitudes, and some documents returned in searches are wholly unrelated—discussing masks, sports, or airline issues—indicating inconsistent relevance among available citations [7] [8] [9]. The absence of a direct KFF link or an insurer dataset in the materials supplied is a critical gap for verification.
4. Possible explanations offered by the materials for large percentage swings
The Senate remarks attribute the large jumps to the expiration of Affordable Care Act tax credits, which could sharply raise individual-market premiums in states that did not expand Medicaid or that have older risk pools, according to the political context provided [2] [3]. Policy-driven changes to subsidies can mathematically produce very large percentage increases when subsidies that previously covered a substantial portion of premiums are removed, particularly in smaller or high-cost states. The supplied materials indicate this mechanism as the stated rationale behind the figures, though direct KFF methodology is not supplied here [1] [2].
5. Tennessee’s 320% figure and a distinct Airbnb tax note
One 2024 Airbnb report documents a 320% increase in taxes collected in Tennessee following a centralized tax collection system, which is a separate phenomenon concerning tourism taxes rather than health or home insurance premiums [6] [10]. This shows the number 320% appears in other contexts unrelated to premium projections, underscoring the importance of verifying that identical percentage figures correspond to the same metric. The dataset therefore contains a matching percentage for Tennessee but attached to a different policy area, not the ACA subsidy discussion in the Senate remarks [6].
6. How to interpret the evidence and where verification is still required
Given the materials, the October 2025 Senate claims exist and cite KFF, but the provided corpus does not include the underlying KFF report or a direct insurer dataset to independently confirm the exact state-by-state percentage increases [1] [2] [3]. The April insurance coverage showing modest national increases undermines the idea that those April numbers are the source of the October triple-digit claims [4] [5]. To conclusively label the original statement true or false requires the missing KFF report or equivalent actuarial data that directly computes those state-level premium changes.
7. Bottom line and recommended next steps for full verification
The claim is accurately reported as circulating among senators and traced to a cited KFF analysis, but it is not independently corroborated within the supplied set of documents; April 2025 insurer projections and unrelated sources do not confirm such dramatic increases [4] [5] [6]. For definitive fact-checking, obtain the specific Kaiser Family Foundation report referenced in the October 2025 statements or actuarial calculations from state insurance regulators or the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, then compare methodology and baseline subsidy assumptions to validate whether those precise percentage increases are supported [1] [2].