Inflation rates for ten years

1. Ten years of inflation: which series answers your question?

When people ask for "inflation rates for ten years" they typically mean the year‑over‑year percent change in a national price index; the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the CPI‑U monthly and annual percent changes that serve as the standard U.S. measure ^{[4] [7]}. Alternatives exist: the chained CPI (C‑CPI‑U) smooths substitution effects and will report slightly different average rates over a decade, and the Fed often focuses on PCE inflation for policy—so your ten‑year table must specify which index before anyone can compare numbers reliably ^{[4] [5] [7]}.

2. What happened in the recent decade, in plain numbers?

Available sources document that headline CPI surged in 2022—reaching the highest levels in decades—and then moderated: by January 2025 the CPI‑U was up 3.0% year‑over‑year, and the 12‑month increase in July 2025 was reported at 2.7%; in September 2025 CPI again measured about 3.0% year‑over‑year ^{[1] [2] [3]}. Third‑party tables and calculators that draw on BLS data show decade averages in the low‑to‑mid 3% range (for example, chained CPI averages near 3.15–3.17% for 2015–2025 on sites that compute compounding effects) but those are dependent on the chosen index and sample window ^{[6] [8]}.

3. Why ten‑year averages can mislead

A ten‑year average smooths sharp swings: the 2022 spike (roughly 8–9% on many series) inflates the mean and masks the disinflation of 2023–25. Calculators that report an “average inflation rate” over ten years typically compute a geometric compound rate from CPI levels; that is mathematically consistent but hides year‑by‑year volatility and the policy‑relevant difference between headline and core inflation ^{[6] [5] [2]}.

4. Sectoral differences matter — headline vs. core

Headline CPI includes food and energy, which are volatile; core CPI strips those out and often shows a different trend. Sources note sector swings—for example, energy and gasoline price moves pushed monthly changes while shelter and health care have been persistent drivers of services inflation—so a ten‑year summary should show both headline and core series or at least highlight the major contributors ^{[9] [10] [4]}.

5. Sources and reliability: official data vs. calculators

The authoritative source is the BLS CPI release and its tables (CPI‑U, C‑CPI‑U), and federal data aggregators such as FRED provide downloadable series for constructing ten‑year lists ^{[4] [7]}. Commercial calculators and sites (USInflationCalculator, in2013dollars, OfficialData) are useful shortcuts and compute compound averages, but they depend on the same BLS inputs and make methodological choices (e.g., chained vs. all‑items) that change results slightly ^{[3] [6] [8]}.

6. How to compile a defensible ten‑year table

Download monthly or annual CPI‑U index values from the BLS or FRED, compute year‑over‑year percent changes for each calendar year, and state whether you use CPI‑U, chained CPI, or PCE; third‑party calculators can verify your arithmetic but cannot replace disclosure of which index you used ^{[7] [4] [5]}.

7. Context: policy and expectations

Federal Reserve materials and Fed‑affiliated nowcasts show that policymakers look at core PCE and inflation forecasts alongside consumer expectations; surveys in late 2025 showed median one‑year expectations around 3.2% and longer‑run expectations near 3.0%, an important piece of context for interpreting a ten‑year series because expectations influence wage and price setting ^{[11] [12] [13]}.

Limitations and next steps: I used only the sources you supplied; they document CPI behavior through mid‑ to late‑2025 but do not contain a simple prebuilt ten‑year table in every format. If you want, I can (a) produce a year‑by‑year list for 2016–2025 using CPI‑U annual percent changes from BLS/FRED data cited above, or (b) create competing ten‑year averages (CPI‑U vs. chained CPI vs. core) and explain the differences step‑by‑step using the official series ^{[4] [7] [6]}.