Is thanksgiving dinner cheaper this year than last year

1. What proponents point to when they say “dinner is cheaper” — cherry-picked retail wins

Supporters of the claim rely heavily on specific retailer bundles and selective surveys that show lower prices this year. Walmart’s themed Thanksgiving bundle is cited as being about 25% cheaper year-over-year, and some media summaries even calculate a larger percent drop using Walmart’s posted numbers ^{[4] [2]}. The American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual survey likewise reported a decline in its household estimate for a 10-person meal — an AFBF headline that the average cost fell to $58.08, about a 5% drop from 2023, with the AFBF release dated November 26, 2024 ^{[3] [5]}. These data points are real and speak to specific baskets or survey methods rather than broad market trends.

2. Why other measures say Thanksgiving is more expensive — broader inflation and wholesale shocks

Contrary indicators show higher costs at scale: grocery prices in aggregate have risen 2.7% year-over-year in one commonly cited series, and wholesale turkey prices surged roughly 40%, creating upward pressure on retail turkey costs that some analyses estimated could make Thanksgiving meals substantially more expensive for many households ^{[1] [6]}. Independent analyses note that while a few items or bundles fell, overall food inflation and commodity shocks (especially in protein markets) pushed many commonly purchased items higher, so the net experience for typical shoppers can be costlier even if one retailer’s bundle is cheaper ^{[1] [6]}.

3. Methodology matters — different baskets, different results

The conflicting headlines trace directly to differences in what’s being measured: retailer bundle pricing, farm-bureau “classic meal” surveys, Wells Fargo compilations, BLS grocery indices, and wholesale commodity prices each capture different baskets and scopes. Walmart’s bundle this year contained fewer items (23 versus 29 last year), making a straight percentage comparison misleading; a smaller or altered bundle can show big percent swings without reflecting real household consumption changes ^{[1] [2]}. Conversely, broader indices that aggregate many items and outlets smooth those retailer-specific fluctuations and often show smaller declines or outright increases ^{[7] [2]}.

4. Reconciling the numbers — small declines for some measures, increases for others

When the various series are reconciled, the most consistent picture is a mixed one: some narrowly defined Thanksgiving meal estimates and promotional bundles show a 2–5% decline versus last year, while other measures—notably wholesale turkey and selected retail prices—point to notable increases that could raise the bill substantially for some shoppers. Wells Fargo and other analysts concluded the cost of a 10-person meal had only fallen about 2–3%, while independent reports stress grocery inflation remains positive year-over-year ^{[7] [2] [1]}. The practical upshot is that both “cheaper” and “more expensive” claims have factual bases, depending on the measurement choice.

5. Political framing and commercial incentives — follow the agenda

Public claims touting large declines have been deployed in political messaging and are often sourced to single-store promotions or headline-grabbing bundles, which can overstate the general picture ^{[1] [2]}. Retailers and commentators have incentives to highlight price drops on conspicuous bundles, while farm-affiliated surveys and consumer-advocacy analyses emphasize affordability trends or inflationary pressures respectively. Recognizing these incentives helps explain why different voices emphasize different datasets; both the promotional and inflation-focused framings are factually supported by different but valid data ^{[4] [5] [6]}.

6. Bottom line for consumers — what to expect at the grocery aisle

Shoppers should expect a heterogeneous experience: promotions and bundled offers can deliver a visibly cheaper Thanksgiving basket at specific stores, but broader grocery inflation and volatile commodity prices—especially for turkey—mean many households will not see large savings and could pay more depending on choices and timing. Practical cost differences will hinge on where you shop, which items you buy, and whether you substitute or downsize portions; the data show modest declines in some specific measures and clear increases in others, so the most accurate answer is that Thanksgiving dinner is not uniformly cheaper this year—some baskets and shoppers saved modestly, while others faced higher bills ^{[2] [3] [6]}.