Is Thanksgiving dinner cheaper in 2025 than it was in 2024

1. What people are claiming and why it grabbed attention

Political and media attention focused on a high‑profile statement that Thanksgiving dinner would cost 25% less in 2025, a claim tied to Walmart’s advertised meal bundle. Critics flagged that the 2025 bundle lists a lower headline price and a lower per‑person cost compared with the advertised 2024 bundle—but the two bundles are not identical in item count, brands, or serving assumptions, making a straight percentage comparison misleading ^{[4] [1]}. Other reporting highlights that while certain retailers are offering bargain bundles, these promotions do not necessarily reflect the broader grocery market, where many staples did not fall in price ^{[5] [3]}. The political context magnified a narrow retail comparison into a national assertion about inflation and living costs.

2. The retailer bundle story: lower sticker price but different contents

Retail‑level comparisons show a genuine headline drop: Walmart’s 2025 Thanksgiving bundle is advertised at roughly $39–$40 for 22–23 items serving more people, versus about $56 for 29 items in 2024, creating a lower per‑person figure in 2025. That math produces an apparent 25% reduction in the advertised total and roughly half the per‑person cost in some calculations, but these figures rest on different baskets and serving assumptions, and include more store‑brand items and fewer brand staples in 2025 ^{[1] [4] [2]}. Fact‑checks conclude the headline claim is misleading because it conflates a promotional package change with an economy‑wide drop in food prices ^{[4] [1]}.

3. Macro grocery inflation and staple prices tell a different story

Independent price data and commodity analysis show broader upward pressure on food‑at‑home costs. Overall grocery prices were reported as about 2.7% higher year‑over‑year in the period cited, and wholesale turkey prices spiked dramatically—one analysis cites a 75% wholesale increase with retail turkey roughly 25% higher than a year earlier—driven largely by supply disruptions such as avian influenza and a reduced turkey flock ^{[6] [7] [2]}. These shifts mean that even if promotional turkey deals appear at large retailers, the dominant direction for core proteins and many groceries is higher, not lower, which would push a typical Thanksgiving basket cost up for many shoppers outside promotional packages ^[6].

4. Promotions, assortment changes and per‑person math can obscure value

Retail promotions can reduce the sticker price for a constructed basket while reducing quantity and switching to cheaper store brands; this lowers the nominal cost but not necessarily the value or quantity of food received. Analysts found the 2025 Walmart basket contained fewer items and more private‑label products, meaning shoppers get a different package for the lower price ^{[4] [1] [2]}. Per‑person comparisons help but depend on assumed servings: when serving counts differ, the per‑person advantage can shrink or disappear. Fact‑checks repeatedly emphasize that apples‑to‑apples comparisons—same items, same quantities, same brands—are required to prove a genuine decline in household food costs ^{[4] [1]}.

5. Weighing the evidence: narrower wins, broader losses

Synthesizing the reporting shows a split conclusion: select retailer bundles and per‑person calculations indicate lower nominal costs for a packaged meal in 2025, while macro indicators—overall grocery inflation and steep turkey price increases—indicate many households likely face higher costs for a full Thanksgiving spread. The bundle evidence supports a localized promotional claim; the commodity and CPI‑style evidence supports a national inflationary trend. Both sets of findings are factually accurate within their scopes, but treating the retail bundle as proof of economy‑wide price declines is an overreach ^{[5] [3] [6] [2]}.

6. Missing context and practical implications for shoppers

Coverage often omits household‑level variation: shoppers using coupons, buying private‑label items, or taking advantage of specific retailer bundles may see cheaper Thanksgiving bills, while others buying traditional brand staples or paying market prices for turkey and beef will likely pay more. The analyses also underplay regional price differences, timing of promotions, and supply shocks that changed wholesale markets earlier in the year—factors that affect whether any individual family pays more or less ^{[7] [4]}. In short, the statement that Thanksgiving is outright cheaper in 2025 than 2024 is too broad; the truth depends on whether you compare promotional bundles or the full cost of staple groceries across the U.S. ^{[1] [2]}.