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Are turkey prices higher or lower this Thanksgiving compared to 2024?
Executive summary
Retail Thanksgiving costs overall are slightly lower in 2025 than in 2024 — the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) reports the classic 10‑person meal averaged $55.18, down about 5% from 2024 [1] [2] [3]. However, wholesale turkey prices and some expert forecasts are sharply higher year‑over‑year: USDA and Purdue/CFDAS analyses show wholesale/frozen turkey prices up roughly 40% to 75% versus 2024 depending on the measure and month cited [4] [5] [6] [7].
1. Wholesale prices: dramatic increases, multiple metrics
Government and academic data used by reporters point to large increases in wholesale turkey prices versus 2024: the USDA’s September outlook forecasted a national average composite wholesale frozen hen price around $1.32 per pound for 2025 — about a 40% rise from 94¢ in 2024 [4] [8]. Purdue University’s Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability (CFDAS) and related reporting say wholesale prices surged as much as 75% since October 2024 and reached $1.71 per pound in October in one analysis [6] [7]. NPR and others summarize the USDA figure as a 40% year‑over‑year jump in wholesale prices [5].
2. Retail/consumer prices: discounting and retailer strategy cut through wholesale trends
Despite higher wholesale costs, retail prices and the AFBF’s survey of a 10‑person Thanksgiving basket fell in 2025. The AFBF reports the typical Thanksgiving meal averaged $55.18 in 2025 — 5% below 2024 — and says retailers used aggressive promotions to lower what consumers actually pay for turkeys at checkout [1] [3] [2]. Major retailers (Walmart, Aldi, Target) introduced bundled meal deals and featured turkeys under $1 per pound in many promotions — Walmart’s curated basket included a Butterball turkey at $0.97/lb and the company’s full meal basket cost about $39.93 for 10 people [9] [10].
3. Why the disconnect? Supply shocks vs. retail competition
Reporting explains the split: higher wholesale costs reflect a tightened national flock after highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks and lower production forecasts (USDA forecasted ~195 million turkeys in 2025 vs. 200 million in 2024) [4] [11]. Retailers, however, are using loss‑leader pricing, substitutions (cheaper brands or product swaps), and meal bundles to drive traffic and protect market share — tactics that lowered the AFBF survey’s retail basket price despite wholesale pressure [2] [10] [3].
4. Where different outlets focus: wholesale, retail or both
Newsrooms emphasize different metrics: Purdue and some analysts highlight wholesale spikes (as high as +75% since Oct 2024 in one analysis) to signal supply stress [6] [7]. USDA, NPR, Today and other outlets anchor on the USDA wholesale forecast (+40%) as a widely cited official marker [4] [5] [8]. Meanwhile Reuters, AFBF, Food Dive and CNBC coverage stress the consumer outcome — retailers’ discounts produced a lower‑cost Thanksgiving basket in 2025 [2] [12] [3].
5. Practical takeaway for shoppers and analysts
If your question is “Are turkey prices higher or lower this Thanksgiving compared to 2024?” the answer depends on which price you mean: wholesale/listing prices are materially higher in 2025 versus 2024 (USDA ~+40%; Purdue analyses show larger spikes) [4] [6]; but retail prices people actually paid at many stores — as captured in the AFBF Thanksgiving meal survey and retailer promotions — were lower overall, with the 16‑lb turkey component down ~16% in AFBF’s retail findings and major chains offering sub‑$1/lb promotions [1] [2] [9]. Reporters cite both realities and show retailers’ strategies can blunt wholesale cost increases at the consumer level [3] [10].
6. Limits and competing perspectives in the coverage
Available sources do not mention one unified, national retail price series that reconciles every wholesale forecast with every store’s in‑market price, so regional and store‑by‑store experiences likely vary; some outlets emphasize wholesale stress while others emphasize retail discounts [6] [4] [2]. Purdue’s 75% figure is a different metric and time window than USDA’s 40% forecast — both are cited in reporting but reflect different datasets and months [6] [4]. The AFBF retail survey shows a retail decline that may reflect temporary promotions and substitutions rather than permanent lower pricing [1] [10].
Bottom line: wholesale turkey costs are clearly higher in 2025 versus 2024 (USDA ~+40%; some analyses show larger spikes), but aggressive retail promotions and bundle strategies produced lower average Thanksgiving meal costs for many consumers this year, according to the AFBF and retailer announcements [4] [6] [1] [9].