Fact check: What are the top 5 states with the fastest-growing SNAP participation rates from 2020 to 2024?

1. Why the direct answer is unavailable and what the sources actually say

The set of documents provided includes a September 2023 news list of the “most added SNAP recipients” for 2022–2023 and several government analyses offering empirical Bayes estimates for FY2020 and FY2022, but none present a continuous series of state participation rates through 2024 or compute multi‑year growth rates from 2020–2024. The news article lists states that saw the largest enrollment increases in one year—Louisiana, California, Florida, New Hampshire, Guam, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Virginia, Massachusetts—which indicates places with recent upward momentum but does not equate to the fastest rates of growth over the full 2020–2024 window ^[1]. The FY2020 and FY2022 empirical Bayes estimates in the reports are the closest granular data available for trend construction, but they cover only two points and stop at 2022; therefore, extrapolating 2024 growth from those two points would be speculative without 2023–2024 state estimates or monthly FNS enrollment series ^[2].

2. What the empirical-Bayes FY2020 and FY2022 estimates can and cannot reveal

The empirical Bayes shrinkage estimates in the supplied analyses give statistically stabilized state participation rates for FY2020 and FY2022, which can be used to calculate a limited two‑point growth metric between those fiscal years. That approach reduces volatility for small states and can identify states with meaningful increases between 2020 and 2022, but it cannot capture changes after FY2022, nor the full influence of pandemic-era policy rollbacks or 2023–2024 economic shifts. The reports explicitly present tables of participation rates and eligible populations for those years, enabling a rigorous FY2020→FY2022 comparison, but the lack of FY2023 and FY2024 equivalents in the provided corpus prevents a credible 2020–2024 ranking ^[2].

3. What the 2022–2023 enrollment reporting adds—and its limitations for rate rankings

A September 2023 news piece and a 2024 summary note identify substantial enrollment increases in 2022–2023—Louisiana (+17.1%), California (+12.1%), Florida (+9.8%) among them—underscoring that several large or hard‑hit states saw sizable year‑over‑year additions. Those figures are valuable for short‑run reporting and show where enrollment climbed as pandemic waivers were winding down, but they reflect absolute or year‑over‑year enrollment changes rather than normalized participation rates relative to eligible populations over a 2020–2024 span. Using 2022–2023 percent changes alone risks conflating one‑year rebounds with multi‑year growth trajectories and may emphasize large-population states because absolute additions can dominate percent‑rate calculations if denominators aren’t standardized ^{[1] [3]}.

4. How different definitions and methods change who appears “fastest growing”

Rate comparisons depend on definitions: enrollment counts vs participation rate (participants divided by eligible persons), smoothing or shrinkage methods (empirical Bayes vs raw counts), and the period chosen. The supplied technical reports favor participation rates estimated with shrinkage to reduce noise, which tends to pull small-state estimates toward regional means; the news coverage reports enrollment jumps that can be driven by policy changes or administrative backlog clearances. These methodological choices alter rankings: a small state with a tiny eligible base can show a high percentage increase in enrollment but a negligible absolute impact, while a large state with moderate rate growth can add millions of participants. The documents illustrate these tradeoffs but do not converge on one consistent method for 2020–2024 ranking ^{[2] [1] [4]}.

5. What would be needed to produce a definitive top‑5 2020–2024 list—and recommended next steps

To produce an authoritative top‑5 fastest‑growing states list for 2020–2024, obtain state‑level participation rate estimates for FY2020, FY2021, FY2022, FY2023, and FY2024 (or monthly FNS enrollment and eligibility series) computed on a consistent methodological basis—preferably the empirical Bayes approach used in the reports so small‑state volatility is managed. Then calculate compound or cumulative growth in participation rates over 2020–2024, rank states, and present uncertainty intervals. The current corpus supplies the building blocks for a FY2020→FY2022 analysis and highlights likely candidates (e.g., Louisiana, California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan), but it does not contain the complete multi‑year data required to answer the user’s original question definitively ^{[2] [1] [3]}.