Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
Fact check: What were the inflation rates during Trump's second term compared to his first term?
Executive Summary
The available documents present conflicting accounts: one set of analyses says inflation was modest under Trump's first term (generally below 2%) and averaged about 2.65% in his second term from January–August 2025, while other pieces emphasize rising inflation in late 2025 (CPI +3% in September) and attribute increases to tariffs, and a separate trio of items notes that Trump is in his first term, creating a factual contradiction in the dataset [1] [2] [3]. Readers should treat claims about "first vs second term" cautiously because sources disagree on whether a second term exists and on which metrics to use [1] [3].
1. Sharp Claim: “Inflation rose in Trump’s second term to ~2.65%” — What the data says and where it came from
One analysis asserts that the average inflation rate during Trump’s second term was 2.65% from January through August 2025, contrasting that with a first term where inflation “remained modest, generally below the Fed’s 2% target” [1]. That piece frames the increase as partly linked to tariff policies expected to push prices higher. The date of publication, 20 October 2025, situates the claim after several monthly CPI releases; however, the analysis uses a specific Jan–Aug 2025 window and does not show month-by-month CPI series or methodological details needed to validate the 2.65% average [1].
2. Contradiction Flag: Some sources deny a second term exists — why this matters
A separate cluster of analyses explicitly states that Trump has only served one term and is currently in his first term, and therefore comparisons to a “second term” are logically inconsistent [3] [4] [2]. These items come from late October 2025 and emphasize that reporting which refers to a “second term” may be misframed or speculative. This contradiction is central: if a source mistakenly labels the current presidency as a second term, any “first vs second term” comparison risks being built on an inaccurate premise [3].
3. Recent headline inflation: September 2025 and the short-term spike
Multiple analyses report a fresher CPI reading: consumer prices rose by 3% in September 2025, a gain that economists linked to tariffs and import-cost pressures [2] [5]. Another article noted 72% of CPI components had exceeded the Fed’s 2% target at that time, signaling broad-based upward pressure across categories rather than a narrow goods-only effect [6]. These September datapoints post-date the Jan–Aug 2025 averaging window cited for the 2.65% figure and suggest a late-year acceleration that could change the year-to-date averages if included [2] [6].
4. Competing narratives: White House says inflation falling; economists warn tariffs fuel it
The White House presented data claiming core inflation was beating expectations, wholesale prices were flat, and industrial production was strong — framing inflation as declining because of surging domestic production [7]. By contrast, independent economists and several reporters attribute recent price rises to Trump administration tariffs raising import costs, concluding that tariffs are “starting to bite” consumers and businesses [5] [6]. These divergent framings reflect political incentives: the White House emphasizes favorable indicators, while critics underscore policy-driven cost pressures [7] [6].
5. Public sentiment: Americans feeling the pinch despite mixed technical signals
A poll reported that 74% of Americans said their monthly household costs increased and 53% said the economy was getting worse, with inflation listed as the top economic risk; this public perception contrasts with messaging that inflation is “over” [8]. Polling from mid-October 2025 captures lived experience of price growth and shows that consumer sentiment can diverge from headline technical metrics, particularly when tariffs raise prices on commonly purchased imported goods [8] [5].
6. Methodology matters: averages, windows, and which inflation measure to use
The conflicting conclusions partially stem from different choices of measurement: year-to-date averages (Jan–Aug 2025) versus single-month annualized CPI readings (September 2025), and headline CPI versus core or wholesale measures [1] [2] [7]. Without a consistent metric and time window, statements like “inflation was X in first term vs Y in second term” are not directly comparable. Analysts must specify whether they mean annual CPI, core CPI, PCE, or monthly change and which span defines “term” [1] [2].
7. Bottom line: What can be stated with confidence and what remains unsettled
Based on the documents, it is certain that inflation climbed in mid–late 2025 (notably a 3% CPI reading in September) and that analysts debate how much tariffs contributed, but it is not reliably established that a distinct “second term” inflation figure of 2.65% is directly comparable to a prior “first term” under Trump, because other sources dispute the second-term premise and use different windows and measures [2] [1] [3]. Readers should treat cross-term comparisons cautiously, verify the presidential-term framing, and demand consistent CPI measures and time spans before accepting numeric contrasts [1] [3].