Fact check: What effect did Trump's tariffs have on CPI and core CPI in May 2025?

1. Summary of the results

The immediate effect of Trump's tariffs on May 2025 CPI was relatively minimal, with consumer prices rising only 0.1% monthly and annual inflation at 2.4%, slightly up from 2.3% the previous year ^[1]. Core CPI rose 2.8%, which was below economist predictions ^[2]. Core goods saw no price increases during the month, though some categories with Chinese supply chain exposure experienced price increases ^[3].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Several important contextual factors need to be considered:

• Delayed Impact: Multiple sources indicate that the full impact of tariffs may not be immediately visible. Experts suggest it could take several months before tariff effects are fully reflected in CPI data ^[2]. This is partly because retailers are still selling pre-tariff merchandise ^[1].
• Future Projections: J.P. Morgan's analysis presents a more concerning outlook, projecting that:
• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices could increase by 1-1.5% in 2025 ^[4]
• Core PCE inflation is expected to rise by 0.3 percentage points to 3.1% due to tariffs ^[4]
• If IEEPA tariffs were removed, core CPI forecasts could decrease by nearly a percentage point ^[5]
• Business Response: Companies are currently managing tariff impacts by:
• Using existing inventories
• Slowly adjusting prices due to uncertain demand ^[3]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The question itself might lead to oversimplified conclusions about tariff impacts. Several stakeholders have different interests in how this data is interpreted:

• Financial Institutions like J.P. Morgan may benefit from emphasizing future inflation risks to inform investment strategies ^{[4] [5]}
• Retailers and Businesses benefit from highlighting their ability to absorb costs without immediate price increases ^[3]
• Government Officials might benefit from emphasizing the current low inflation numbers while downplaying future risks ^[1]
• Media Organizations like CBS News and Kiplinger might benefit from presenting contrasting viewpoints to generate engagement ^{[2] [3]}