Is the price of a turkey cheaper in 2025 than in 2024
Executive summary
Available reporting shows conflicting measures: retail surveys and the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) say retail turkey prices in 2025 are lower than in 2024 — a 16% drop for a 16‑pound bird to about $21.50 and a 5% cheaper Thanksgiving meal overall [1] — while agricultural analyses and some market reports show sharp wholesale price increases (wholesale up as much as 75% since Oct. 2024 and wholesale reaching about $1.71/lb in Oct. 2025), which can push retail prices higher depending on sourcing [2]. Different datasets, timeframes and supply‑chain factors explain the divergence in conclusions [3] .
1. Retail surveys point to cheaper turkeys at checkout
The American Farm Bureau Federation’s volunteer store survey found that a 16‑pound turkey averaged $21.50 in 2025, down roughly 16% from the $25.67 reported for 2024, and that its 2025 “classic feast for 10” cost $55.18 — about 5% less than in 2024 — crediting retailers’ discounting and feature pricing for the decline [1] . The AFBF’s Market Intel notes the 16‑pound figure again and explains that grocery store promos and feature ads have reduced the retail per‑pound price to approximately $1.34 [3] .
2. Wholesale markets and industry analyses signal much higher prices
Academic and market analyses show the opposite pressure at the farm/wholesale level: Purdue’s College of Agriculture and accompanying reporting estimate wholesale turkey prices surged about 75% since October 2024, reaching near $1.71 per pound in October 2025, driven largely by highly pathogenic avian influenza losses and smaller flocks [2] . News outlets such as CNBC and AccuWeather cite the same Purdue analysis and warn wholesale spikes could translate to higher consumer costs, especially for retailers that buy on the spot market [4] [5] .
3. Why retail and wholesale data can tell different stories
Retail prices reflect contracts, promotions, inventory bought earlier, and competitive pricing strategies; wholesale prices reflect current supply shocks and spot market volatility. AFBF explicitly notes grocery chains often feature whole turkeys at lower prices leading up to Thanksgiving and that some retailers can hold prices down because of prior purchasing arrangements [1] [3] . Conversely, outlets that must cover higher current wholesale costs — or who purchased on the spot market — could raise retail tags, creating geographic and store‑by‑store variation [4] .
4. Geographic and methodological differences matter
State‑by‑state price tallies produce divergent conclusions: one state‑level roundup (FinanceBuzz) finds average turkey prices up about 11% nationally in 2025 compared with 2024, with large variation across states [6] . Methodology differences also matter: producer/wholesale metrics (USDA, Purdue) use market and negotiated prices, while AFBF’s household‑basket survey is a snapshot of advertised retail prices and in‑store feature activity across volunteers’ local markets [3] [2] .
5. What to expect at the store this Thanksgiving
If you shop national chain promotions or a retailer that hedged earlier, you may see lower advertised prices like the AFBF average; if your store relies on recent spot purchases or is in a region hit by supply disruptions or tariffs, you may face higher tags consistent with wholesale pressure [1] [4]. Media outlets warn that wholesale surges could still push some retailers to increase prices and that costs can vary substantially depending on sourcing and timing [2] [4].
6. How to interpret the overall picture and remaining uncertainties
Available sources do not present a single definitive answer because they measure different points in the supply chain and use different methods: retail feature surveys show a retail decline [1] [3], while wholesale and academic analyses show sharp increases that could flow through later or unevenly [2] [5]. Fact‑checking outlets note turkeys make up a smaller share of the overall meal cost even when wholesale volatility exists, complicating simple comparisons year‑to‑year [7] .
Bottom line: some major retail surveys report turkeys are cheaper at the checkout in 2025 versus 2024 (AFBF’s 16‑pound average $21.50, down ~16%), but wholesale market data show big price pressures that could translate into higher retail prices for some buyers or regions — the answer depends on which measure (retail advertised price vs. wholesale/spot price) and which local market you examine [1] [2] [6].