How much tax revenue did undocumented immigrants contribute to federal and state budgets in 2019?
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Executive summary
Estimates of undocumented immigrants’ tax contributions for 2019 differ sharply depending on methodology: a conservative congressional Republican analysis puts federal-only contributions from payroll-related taxes at about $25.9 billion for 2019 [1], while researchers drawing on Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) and related tabulations estimate total federal, state and local tax payments in the ballpark of roughly $37 billion in that period, with about $34 billion coming specifically from payroll taxes [2].
1. The low-end, program-focused tally: $25.9 billion to federal coffers
A study cited in Republican Judiciary Committee materials calculates the contribution of “illegal immigrants” to three federal payroll-type taxes at $25.9 billion in 2019 and presents that figure as the primary federal benefit to Social Security, Medicare and related programs [1]; that framing treats the receipts as narrowly tied to particular social insurance streams and underlies arguments that undocumented workers subsidize programs they cannot access [1].
2. The broader research view: roughly $34 billion in payroll taxes and ~ $37 billion total
Independent research aggregating Center for Migration Studies population estimates with ITEP-style tax modeling reports about $34 billion in payroll tax contributions by undocumented workers (including employer and employee shares directed at Social Security, Medicare and unemployment insurance) and places total tax revenues at roughly $37 billion for the comparable period — a figure that reflects payroll plus other state and local taxes [2].
3. Why the gap exists: methods, definitions and which taxes are counted
Differences arise because the Camarota/House analysis counts specific federal payroll-related receipts and frames them as “contributions to federal coffers” in 2019 [1], whereas the ITEP-style studies estimate a wider set of taxes (federal, state and local income, payroll, property, sales and excise taxes) and include both employer and employee shares, and they rely on tax-filing indicators such as ITIN usage and modeled underreporting [3] [2].
4. What each estimate implies and the political uses of the numbers
The $25.9 billion figure has been used to argue that undocumented workers are a net contributor to Social Security and Medicare funding because they pay in but are largely ineligible for benefits [1], while the roughly $37 billion aggregate figure is cited by researchers and advocacy groups to show undocumented households’ broader public-revenue contributions to state and local budgets and to argue that legalization would raise tax compliance and revenues further [2] [3].
5. Limits of available reporting and where uncertainty remains
Public-facing reports acknowledge substantial measurement uncertainty: ITEP and allied analyses note reliance on ITIN and other administrative data and model-based assumptions to account for underreporting and concentration of undocumented populations in certain states [3], and the House Republican material concedes possible undercounting in survey sources even as it focuses on a narrower tax basket [1]; available sources do not supply a single, undisputed 2019 grand total that every analyst accepts.
6. Bottom line for 2019: a range, not a single number
For 2019 the defensible reporting-based range is roughly $25.9 billion in federal payroll-type taxes per the congressional Republican estimate [1] up to about $37 billion in combined federal, state and local taxes per analyses synthesizing ITEP-style methods and Center for Migration Studies population data [2]; readers should treat differences as methodological rather than purely partisan, and note that researchers who model legalization predict sizable additional revenue gains from higher wages and compliance [3] [2].