What is the estimated consumer spending by undocumented immigrants in the US?

1. What “spending power” means — and why it is not the same as measured consumer spending

Groups such as the American Immigration Council report “spending power” (for example, $299 billion held by undocumented households in 2023), a construct that counts after‑tax income available to purchase goods and services rather than a direct tabulation of retail or service purchases ^[1]. Analysts and advocates argue spending power approximates the pool of resources that could underwrite consumption, but it does not equal an audited figure of actual retail sales or taxable consumption in a given year; the distinction matters for policy debates about lost local sales if enforcement reduces immigrant presence ^{[1] [3]}.

2. Range of public estimates and who issues them

Advocacy and research organizations produce the numbers most often cited. The American Immigration Council’s 2025 analysis produced the $299 billion spending-power estimate for undocumented households in 2023 ^[1]. The Joint Economic Committee and allied analyses discuss much larger aggregates for all immigrants — for example, a cited $1.6 trillion spending-power figure for immigrants broadly — and use those numbers to model macroeconomic effects of deportations ^[2]. Academic, non‑profit and policy groups (New American Economy, ITEP, National Immigration Forum) provide complementary tax and spending breakdowns but do not converge on a single national consumer‑spending total for the undocumented population alone ^{[3] [4] [5]}.

3. Methodological caveats that drive differences

Different studies count different populations (undocumented only; undocumented plus lawfully present immigrants; households vs. individuals), use varied years and data sources (Census, ACS, tax records), and treat taxes, remittances and savings differently — all of which change headline totals ^{[3] [4]}. For instance, ITEP’s tax and consumption modelling adjusts consumption categories (fuel, vehicle spending, tobacco) to reflect lower vehicle ownership or smoking rates among some immigrant groups, which lowers implied taxable spending relative to simple income‑based extrapolations ^[4]. Advocacy groups often emphasize economic contributions in politically charged contexts (e.g., modelling the cost of mass deportations), which can shape framing and selected metrics ^{[2] [5]}.

4. What the estimates are used to argue — and competing perspectives

Advocates use spending‑power and tax‑contribution figures to argue that removing undocumented immigrants would shrink local demand, raise prices in some sectors, and subtract hundreds of billions in economic activity ^{[2] [1]}. Opposing or more cautious analysts emphasize uncertainty: net fiscal and macro effects depend on labor market adjustments, replacement labor, and whether income recorded as “spending power” translates into taxable consumption versus remittances or savings ^{[4] [3]}. The sources provided do not include a single neutral government estimate that reconciles these effects for undocumented consumer spending specifically ^{[3] [4]}.

5. Evidence on economic impact when populations change — a policy lens

Studies modelling deportation scenarios project falling consumer spending and higher prices in affected sectors (e.g., food, construction), indicating that even if precise spending totals are debated, reductions in immigrant labor and household presence can have measurable demand effects ^{[2] [6]}. Simulations cited by the Joint Economic Committee and advocacy groups find large macro impacts — higher prices and lower output — tied in part to lost consumer demand, though those models aggregate many channels (labor, production, and spending) rather than isolating a single “annual consumer spending” number for undocumented people alone ^[2].

6. Bottom line and guidance for readers

If you need a single headline number for public discussion, the most-cited published figure in the provided materials is $299 billion in spending power for undocumented households in 2023 ^[1]. Treat that figure as an after‑tax, capacity‑to‑spend estimate — not a precise measure of annual consumer purchases — and expect other reputable analyses to yield different totals depending on definitions and modelling choices ^{[1] [4] [2]}. For policymaking or forecasting, request clarity on definition (spending power vs. realized spending), population covered (undocumented vs. all immigrants), and the year/data source before using any single number as definitive ^{[3] [4]}.