How much do undocumented immigrants contribute to Social Security and Medicare each year (latest estimates)?

1. What advocates and data repeatedly claim — a concise tally of the headline numbers

Multiple independent summaries converge on the same headline: ITEP’s 2022 model is the most-cited source estimating undocumented immigrants’ direct payroll-tax payments to Social Security and Medicare. The numbers most frequently reported are approximately $25.7–26 billion for Social Security and $6–6.4 billion for Medicare, combining to roughly $31.7–32.4 billion in payroll taxes for 2022 ^{[1] [2] [3]}. News outlets and subsequent analyses place total tax contributions, including federal, state, and local taxes beyond payroll taxes, near $96.7–$100 billion for that year, a broader figure that contextualizes the payroll-tax contributions but does not change the program-specific estimates ^{[5] [3]}. These figures are repeatedly used to highlight that undocumented workers pay into programs from which they are typically ineligible for benefits.

2. Alternative figures and broader aggregates — how 2023 reporting complicates the picture

A separate reporting track offers higher-level aggregates for 2023 that do not disaggregate Social Security and Medicare. One analysis cites roughly $66 billion in federal income and payroll taxes in 2023, with about $43 billion in payroll taxes, implying that a substantial portion of those payroll taxes would flow to Social Security and Medicare but without explicit program-by-program splits ^[4]. That aggregate suggests increases year-to-year but cannot be directly compared to the ITEP 2022 split because it lacks the Social Security/Medicare breakdown. Reporting that emphasizes the $43 billion payroll-tax aggregate underscores rising tax payments in nominal terms while also signaling a data gap: recent estimates exist at the payroll-tax level but not always at the program-specific level needed to update ITEP’s 2022 numbers ^[4].

3. What sources say they do and do not provide — methodological transparency matters

Some analyses and reports explicitly acknowledge limits: certain fact-checks and articles do not offer program-specific estimates for undocumented immigrants’ payments to Social Security or Medicare, while authoritative syntheses (notably ITEP-based work) provide modeled splits for 2022 ^{[6] [7]}. The American Immigration Council offers context on immigrants’ net contributions to Medicare generally, but it does not isolate undocumented migrants in its per-capita Medicare analysis or provide a comparable Social Security total, leaving room for misinterpretation when extrapolating to the undocumented population specifically ^[7]. This patchwork of coverage explains why multiple outlets cite the same ITEP numbers for 2022: they remain the most detailed, program-level public estimates available ^{[2] [3]}.

4. Where the estimates diverge and why caution is warranted

Divergence arises from differences in scope (payroll taxes only versus all taxes), year (2022 versus 2023 aggregates), and population assumptions (estimating unauthorized population size, labor-force participation, and earnings profiles). ITEP’s 2022 model yields the detailed Social Security and Medicare splits, but more recent tax-aggregate reporting for 2023 exists without program breakdowns, producing apparent increases in total payroll-tax payments that cannot be allocated with the same precision as ITEP’s earlier work ^{[1] [4]}. Several fact-checking and policy reports explicitly note the absence of up-to-date program-by-program estimates for undocumented immigrants, which means the ITEP 2022 figures remain the best available for Social Security and Medicare specifically while 2023 aggregates suggest but do not confirm higher program-level amounts ^{[6] [7]}.

5. The fiscal implications and what the numbers do and do not prove

The ITEP-based figures establish that undocumented workers pay billions into Social Security and Medicare annually while generally being ineligible for most program benefits—an important fiscal dynamic referenced by Social Security actuaries and policy analysts discussing trust-fund effects and program solvency. However, these numbers do not by themselves quantify net fiscal impacts across all government programs, nor do they settle policy debates about eligibility, enforcement, or long-term solvency, because they focus on payroll and tax payments rather than lifetime benefit flows or expenditure offsets. Broader tax totals (near $96.7–$100 billion) show substantial overall fiscal contributions but require additional analysis to map onto budgetary costs and benefits across federal, state, and local programs ^{[8] [5]}.

6. Bottom line — the best current answer and outstanding data gaps

The best-supported, program-specific estimate for the latest year available is ITEP’s 2022 model: about $25.7–26 billion to Social Security and $6–6.4 billion to Medicare (combined ~$32 billion), with total tax contributions near $96.7–$100 billion for 2022. More recent reporting indicates higher payroll-tax aggregates in 2023 but lacks the Social Security/Medicare split needed to update the program-level totals confidently. Key gaps remain: no publicly available, detailed program-by-program estimate for undocumented immigrants’ Social Security and Medicare contributions for 2023 or later, and methodological differences across reports mean year-to-year comparisons require caution ^{[2] [4] [7]}.