How much do undocumented immigrants contribute to Social Security and Medicare relative to benefits received?

1. What the numbers say: immediate contributions versus immediate benefits

Multiple independent analyses converge on similar magnitudes: ITEP and other reporters estimate undocumented workers paid roughly $25.7 billion into Social Security and about $6–6.4 billion into Medicare in 2022 ^{[1] [3] [2]}, a slice of the total payroll tax base that they cannot generally convert into retirement or Medicare benefits because unauthorized status bars them from eligibility for those federal programs ^{[4] [6]}. That arithmetic — taxes in, benefits out — is the basis for the frequent claim that undocumented immigrants “contribute more than they receive” to Social Security and Medicare ^{[2] [3]}.

2. Why those contributions don’t automatically equal permanent gains

Experts caution that the headline numbers are partial. Some payroll taxes from unauthorized workers are paid under stolen or borrowed Social Security numbers and therefore are recorded as revenue even if the individual will never legally claim benefits; in that sense the contributions bolster trust fund receipts in the short run ^{[7] [8]}. But projections of long‑term effects depend on future status changes, fertility and labor‑force participation of immigrants and their U.S.‑born children, and whether legalization would change eligibility and benefit claiming — factors that can flip net impacts over decades ^{[5] [4]}.

3. The academic split: “unambiguous benefit” vs. conditional assessments

Some analysts and organizations argue unauthorized immigration unambiguously improves trust‑fund finances because many contributors will never draw benefits, creating net gains for the funds ^{[5] [7]}. Others — including Social Security researchers and the SSA itself — emphasize redistribution and lifecycle patterns: immigrants often have different earnings trajectories and fewer covered years, so among those who do become eligible the replacement rates can be higher or lower depending on career length and wages, producing mixed effects ^{[9] [10]}.

4. Hidden agendas and interpretive frames in reporting

Coverage varies by source. Advocacy groups and think tanks use the same core tax estimates to push different policies: some emphasize the “free money” narrative to advocate exclusionary enforcement ^[2], while immigrant‑support groups highlight contributions to argue that deportations or denial of legalization would worsen solvency ^{[11] [5]}. Center‑right outlets and research often stress that the aggregate amounts are small relative to total benefits paid — more than $1.5 trillion in recent combined Social Security/SSI outlays — to argue contributions don’t solve fiscal shortfalls ^[2].

5. What evidence is missing or uncertain

Available sources provide solid short‑run tax‑flow estimates, but they do not settle long‑run net fiscal effects: projected lifetime tax payments and benefit receipts for individuals whose legal status may change, hidden off‑the‑books work, misreporting of Social Security numbers, and downstream effects on Medicare spending patterns are all areas where data are limited or model‑dependent ^{[8] [12]}. Where sources make broad claims — e.g., that undocumented immigrants “unambiguously” improve trust funds — those claims depend on assumptions about permanence of ineligibility and future immigration policy ^[5].

6. Bottom line

Measured by recent annual flows, undocumented immigrants collectively pay tens of billions into Social Security and several billion into Medicare while largely remaining ineligible to collect those specific federal benefits, making them net contributors on an annual accounting basis ^{[1] [3] [4]}. Whether that short‑run contribution translates into meaningful long‑term solvency gains is unsettled and depends on legal status trajectories, demographic patterns, and policy choices — and different analysts highlight different assumptions to support policy arguments ^{[5] [7]}.