How much revenue do undocumented immigrants contribute to Social Security each year?

1. What the headline numbers say: $25B and similar figures

Several recent summaries and studies converge on an order‑of‑magnitude claim that undocumented workers paid roughly $24–$25 billion in Social Security payroll taxes in a single recent year: the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) reported undocumented immigrants paid $25.7 billion in Social Security taxes in 2022 (including employer and employee shares) ^[1]; the Penn Wharton Budget Model estimated unauthorized immigrants paid about $24 billion in Social Security taxes in 2024 ^[2]. Advocacy and policy organizations likewise describe contributions in “billions” annually ^{[3] [5]}.

2. How analysts arrive at those numbers: methods and data sources

Estimates come from different methodologies. ITEP uses taxpayer records tied to Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers and demographic/economic modeling to allocate tax contributions ^[1]. The Penn Wharton Budget Model applies economic modeling of the unauthorized population and payroll tax rates to produce year‑specific estimates like $24 billion ^[2]. Older SSA and academic work has also used the “earnings suspense file” (mismatched W‑2s) to infer billions in contributions that cannot be matched to SSNs ^{[4] [6]}.

3. Why the figures vary: scope, year, and what’s counted

Numbers differ because some estimates count only the employee share, others include both employer and employee shares, some are single‑year snapshots while others are modeled projections, and some attribute unresolved earnings reports to undocumented workers while others use ITIN filers as the basis ^{[4] [1] [2]}. Reporting years matter: ITEP’s $25.7 billion is for 2022 ^[1]; Penn Wharton’s $24 billion is an estimate for 2024 ^[2]. Broader claims like “billions annually” from advocacy pieces summarize the same scale without the precise breakdown ^[3].

4. What the Social Security Administration and actuarial work say about net impact

The SSA and actuarial assessments have repeatedly noted that many unauthorized workers contribute payroll taxes yet are ineligible for most benefits, and past SSA analysis found taxes paid by undocumented immigrants exceeded benefits paid out in some historical estimates (for example, a $12 billion excess in 2007 noted by SSA researchers) ^{[7] [6]}. Actuarial and policy groups emphasize that immigrant workers — documented and undocumented — generally improve the short‑run finances of Social Security by expanding the worker base ^{[8] [5]}.

5. Political framing and competing narratives

Advocacy groups on different sides interpret these numbers to support opposing arguments. Immigration advocates highlight contributions as a reason deportations would harm Social Security solvency (American Immigration Council, CBPP, Penn Wharton modeling) ^{[3] [5] [2]}. Opponents sometimes emphasize ineligibility for benefits to argue undocumented workers are subsidizing the program; sources note many undocumented workers will never receive benefits yet still fund the trust ^{[1] [7] [9]}. The same underlying data are used to make contrasting policy cases ^{[2] [1]}.

6. Limits of current reporting and what’s not settled

Available sources do not provide a single, definitive annual figure universally accepted by all agencies; instead, they offer estimates that depend on assumptions about the size of the undocumented population, labor force participation, and tax treatment ^{[2] [1] [4]}. Sources also do not settle precisely how much of the contributions remain permanently in the Trust Fund because some undocumented workers later change status and become eligible for benefits — an effect modeled differently across studies ^{[2] [7]}.

7. Bottom line for readers and policymakers

The best available reporting places undocumented immigrants’ contributions to Social Security in the tens of billions per year (commonly cited: ~$25 billion in 2022 and ~$24 billion in 2024), and analysts say these contributions improve Social Security’s short‑term finances even as longer‑term effects depend on future immigration, enforcement, and legalization dynamics ^{[1] [2] [5]}. Readers should treat any single number as an estimate and check whether a source counts employer shares, the year, and the modeling assumptions behind the headline figure ^{[1] [2] [4]}.