Fact check: How do tax contributions of undocumented immigrants compare across recent estimates from the IRS, Pew Research Center, and Center for Migration Studies?

1. Big headline: Nearly $97 billion is the repeated total researchers report

Multiple studies cited here place the total tax contribution of undocumented immigrants in 2022 at about $96.7–$100 billion, with breakdowns commonly showing roughly $59 billion to federal coffers and $37 billion to state and local governments; these totals are repeated in advocacy and explanatory pieces that cite 2022 as the measurement year and highlight the fiscal footprint of undocumented workers ^{[1] [2] [6] [3]}. The consistency across these recent summaries suggests a robust central estimate, but the appearance of near-identical totals across different write-ups also reflects shared data sources and assumptions rather than independent confirmation; readers should note that the headline number is sensitive to whether payroll taxes that fund Social Security and Medicare (often paid by undocumented workers) are treated as “contributions” even though many payers remain ineligible for future benefits ^{[4] [3] [5]}.

2. Where the money goes: federal versus state and payroll specifics

Reported breakdowns allocate the bulk of the estimated $97 billion to the federal level—commonly cited as about $59 billion—with $37 billion to state and local governments in the same analytic universe, and additional line items often isolating payroll-type taxes such as Social Security ($25–34 billion) and Medicare contributions ^{[1] [4] [3]}. These distinctions matter because analysts who count Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes treat them as taxes paid even when many undocumented workers cannot claim benefits; in contrast, some fiscal discussions separate “net fiscal impact” from gross tax payments, arguing that benefit ineligibility alters the effective return to public programs. The presence of both federal income and payroll taxes in these totals is a central reason the headline number is substantial and politically salient ^{[4] [3]}.

3. Pew’s role: demographic clarity but no tax total in these reports

The Pew Research Center materials cited here focus on population counts, the legal statuses that shape work authorization, and public opinion rather than producing a tax-revenue estimate comparable to the nearly $97 billion figures. Pew’s July 2024 report places the unauthorized population at about 11 million and documents that around 3 million have temporary protections that can affect their formal labor-market participation and tax filing; those population and status distinctions are crucial inputs for any tax estimate but Pew’s reported items in these excerpts do not present a combined tax-total like the ITEP/advocacy summaries do ^{[7] [8]}. The absence of a direct tax estimate from Pew in this set of documents means comparison requires aligning different outputs: Pew gives demographic rigor, while the other studies translate population and labor patterns into dollar estimates ^{[7] [8]}.

4. CMS perspective: tax parity, exclusions, and child-poverty implications

The Center for Migration Studies emphasizes that many noncitizen filers—those using ITINs or similar identifiers—pay the same income taxes as Social Security filers but are excluded from certain tax credits, notably the Earned Income Tax Credit and eligibility for Social Security benefits, which affects household welfare and child poverty policy discussions ^[5]. CMS research and related analyses highlight unequal treatment under the tax code: undocumented workers can be net contributors to trust funds through payroll taxes while being denied access to the programs their payments nominally finance. That policy asymmetry is a central point of CMS’s framing and explains why CMS discussions often stress reform implications rather than only headline revenue numbers ^[5].

5. Methodological differences and potential agendas that shape the numbers

The reported agreement around ~ $97 billion masks methodological differences: some reports include payroll taxes and imputed unreported income, others focus on formal filings; variations in the assumed size of the undocumented population, economic activity by state, and the treatment of benefit eligibility generate divergent net-impact conclusions even when gross-tax totals are similar ^{[1] [3] [4]}. The sources here include advocacy and policy research outlets that may frame tax totals to argue for or against policy changes, while Pew supplies demographic context without producing comparable revenue tallies; readers should note that advocacy-oriented pieces emphasize fiscal contribution to argue for inclusion, whereas demographic reports emphasize uncertainty and status differences that complicate fiscal interpretations ^{[2] [7] [5]}.

6. Bottom line and what still matters for policy and debate

The consolidated evidence from these recent documents is clear that undocumented immigrants pay tens of billions of dollars in taxes annually—commonly estimated near $97 billion for 2022—with a large share going to federal programs and significant payroll-tax contributions to Social Security and Medicare; however, major research centers like Pew do not provide a direct, comparable tax-dollar estimate in the cited materials, and CMS highlights how tax payment does not automatically yield program access or credit eligibility ^{[1] [3] [7] [5]}. Policymakers and analysts should therefore treat the headline tax totals as meaningful but contingent on definitional choices, and recognize that debates about fiscal impact hinge as much on benefit eligibility and long-term net fiscal accounting as on gross tax receipts.