Which new mine projects could materially change silver supply after 2026 and what are their timelines?
Executive summary
A small set of restarts, near‑mine expansions and advanced projects—rather than a wave of brand‑new greenfield mines—are most likely to shift silver supply after 2026, but the scale and timing vary: some projects target 2026 construction or resource milestones that could enable incremental output in 2027–2028, while structurally material additions that would meaningfully alter global supply likely remain several years out because development-to-production cycles typically run 7–10 years [1].
1. Major company expansions with near-term upside: Pan American’s La Colorada work and internal projects
Pan American Silver is explicitly advancing phased development at La Colorada Skarn and the associated vein mine as part of its 2026 project capital program, and is allocating several hundred million dollars to project and sustaining capital that is expected to underpin production and optimization work in 2026 [2] [3]. Those initiatives represent meaningful near‑term upside to an existing large producer’s silver output, but they are optimization and phased developments of operating assets rather than instant, high‑volume greenfield supply.
2. Restarts and fast‑track projects that could add ounces quickly: La Parrilla, La Guitarra and Sala/Delamar claims
A number of restart candidates and recently restarted operations claim the ability to accelerate production: a prepayment deal backed Silver Storm’s La Parrilla restart program with drilling begun to prepare for a potential Q2 2026 restart [1], Sierra Madre’s La Guitarra has been presented as a completed restart with immediate production characteristics and existing permits and infrastructure [4], and reporting has promoted Sala and Delamar as revival/early projects targeting near‑term gains [5]. These projects can supply ounces faster than greenfield builds because they leverage existing infrastructure, but public reporting ranges from corporate press narrative to paid commentary so independent verification of scale and timing is limited in the sources provided [1] [4] [5].
3. High‑impact new developments that could be material but are multi‑year plays: El Tigre and district projects
Silver Tiger’s El Tigre is described in a 2026 PEA as a 17‑year plan recovering roughly 38 Moz AgEq with a 15‑year underground mine life and targets scheduling construction for 2026, positioning it among the larger single‑project contributors to future supply if timelines hold [6]. Larger district projects such as Lundin’s Vicuña district (Filo del Sol / Josemaria) are advancing integrated technical studies and resource updates in Q1 2026 but are primarily copper/gold focused with silver as a by‑product, meaning their silver contribution depends on broader project economics and longer permitting/construction windows [7].
4. Mid‑tier producers and brownfield expansions: Endeavour, First Majestic and K92
Endeavour’s 2026 guidance anticipates higher consolidated silver production from Terronera, Guanaceví and Kolpa driven by mine development and plant optimization—with significant capital budgets targeted at Terronera mine development in 2026 [8]. First Majestic plans a very large exploration program (≈266,000 m in 2026) and ongoing expansions (plant throughput increases expected to complete in H2 2026) that aim to convert discoveries such as Santo Niño into resources that can lift production over time [9]. K92’s 2026 program highlights ramp and expansion enablers aimed at higher output in H2 2026, though K92 is a gold‑dominant operation with silver credits [10]. These moves are important for aggregate supply but are more incremental than transformational on their own.
5. Structural constraints and timing realities that limit immediate supply shocks
Even with many projects hitting technical reports, resource updates or construction starts in 2026, the industry’s average development cycles (7–10+ years) mean most new projects cannot translate elevated prices into substantial new supply before the early‑to‑mid‑2030s; that is a core reason analysts frame much of the sector’s new capacity as incremental or delayed [1]. Several sources explicitly flag Q1–Q2 2026 milestones (resource updates, PEAs and technical reports) as de‑risking events rather than guarantees of near‑term production [11] [7].
6. Bottom line — what could materially change supply after 2026 and when
Near‑term (2026–2028) silver supply increases are most credible from restarts and brownfield expansions: La Parrilla, La Guitarra, Pan American’s La Colorada projects and mid‑tier mill/throughput upgrades from firms such as Endeavour and First Majestic [1] [4] [2] [8] [9]. Projects with potential to be materially influential in aggregate—El Tigre and large district developments—are set up to progress in 2026 but, given typical timelines, would likely contribute materially on a multi‑year horizon (post‑2027 and into the 2030s) if permitting, financing and construction proceed as planned [6] [1]. Public reporting shows milestones and capital budgets but not guaranteed production schedules, and the evidence in these sources supports cautious expectation of incremental supply after 2026 with truly transformational additions more likely later.